石林巴江流域近40年气温和降水变化的初步研究

利用数理统计方法分析了石林巴江流域中部近40年（1964-2001年）的气温和降雨量的年、季节和月变化。本区气温的增温速率是0．2℃／10a，与昆明市区增温率相近，低于同期全国增温速率；雨季（夏季）增温幅度大于旱季（冬季）。在过去40年中，年降雨量增加总量约为40mm，雨季降雨量略有降低，而旱季降雨量略有增强，全年第一次降雨强度和全年日最大降雨量也略有增加，但每年连续不降雨天数增加约1．9天。降雨量变化的波动性比气温变化的波动性强。气温、降雨量在1960s、1970s、1980s和1990s表现出不同的变化趋势。

PRELIMINARY STUDY ON THE LAST 40 YEARS' CHANGE OF TEMPERATURE AND RAIN PRECIPITATION IN SHILIN BA-RIVER CATCHMENTS

Climatic logical records, the change in river catchments is concerned worldwide. With base of the last 40 years＇ meteoro- changes of temperature and rain precipitation were discussed respectively monthly, seasonally and yearly by mathematical statistic way. The results show that increasing rate of annual temperature is 0.2℃/10a, nearly equal to one in Kunming City, but lower than the same period change nationwide. The increasing quantity of temperature in rainfall season （summer season） from May to October is higher than one in dry season （winter season） from November to nest April. In the past 40-years, annual rainfall increased totally by 40 mm. Rainfall in the rainfall season decreased slightly and one in the dry season increased by a little. The quantity of the first precipitation each year was more and the maximum rainfall of one day each year also increased, but continuous days of no rainfall increased by about 1.9 days. The fluctuation in rainfall is more than in temperature. Rainfall change is different from both worldwide and broad region. By dividing the studied years＇ meteorological data into different periods, different characters of temperature and precipitation change was found respectively in 1960s,1970s,1980s and 1990s.