| EXPERIMENTS ON ASSIMILATION OF INITIAL VALUES IN NUMERICAL PREDICTION OF A WARM-SECTOR PRECIPITATION IN SOUTH CHINA |
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| 作者姓名： | 张诚忠 万齐林 黄燕燕 陈子通 丁伟钰 |
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| 作者单位： | Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, CMA |
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| 基金项目： | Public Welfare Project (GYHX(QX)2007-6-14); Basic operational fees for highest-level
public welfare research institutes |
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| 摘 要： | In order to understand the impact of initial conditions upon prediction accuracy of short-term
forecast and nowcast of precipitation in South China, four experiments i.e. a control, an assimilation of
conventional sounding and surface data, testing with nudging rainwater data and the assimilation of
radar-derived radial wind, are respectively conducted to simulate a case of warm-sector heavy rainfall that
occurred over South China, by using the GRAPES_MESO model. The results show that (1) assimilating
conventional surface and sounding observations helps improve the 24-h rainfall forecast in both the area
and order of magnitude; (2) nudging rainwater contributes to a significant improvement of nowcast, and (3)
the assimilation of radar-derived radial winds distinctly improves the 24-h rainfall forecast in both the area
and order of magnitude. These results serve as significant technical reference for the study on short-term
forecast and nowcast of precipitation over South China in the future.
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| 关 键 词： | 降水量 中国 数值预报 同化 实验 初始值 温暖 短期预报 |
EXPERIMENTS ON ASSIMILATION OF INITIAL VALUES IN NUMERICAL PREDICTION OF A WARM-SECTOR PRECIPITATION IN SOUTH CHINA |
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| ZHANG Cheng-zhong,WAN Qi-lin,HUANG Yan-yan,CHEN Zi-tong and DING Wei-yu.EXPERIMENTS ON ASSIMILATION OF INITIAL VALUES IN NUMERICAL PREDICTION OF A WARM-SECTOR PRECIPITATION IN SOUTH CHINA[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2009,15(1):73-77. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Cheng-zhong WAN Qi-lin HUANG Yan-yan CHEN Zi-tong and DING Wei-yu |
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| Institution: | Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology,CMA,Guangzhou 510080 China |
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| Abstract: | In order to understand the impact of initial conditions upon prediction accuracy of short-term
forecast and nowcast of precipitation in South China, four experiments i.e. a control, an assimilation of
conventional sounding and surface data, testing with nudging rainwater data and the assimilation of
radar-derived radial wind, are respectively conducted to simulate a case of warm-sector heavy rainfall that
occurred over South China, by using the GRAPES_MESO model. The results show that (1) assimilating
conventional surface and sounding observations helps improve the 24-h rainfall forecast in both the area
and order of magnitude; (2) nudging rainwater contributes to a significant improvement of nowcast, and (3)
the assimilation of radar-derived radial winds distinctly improves the 24-h rainfall forecast in both the area
and order of magnitude. These results serve as significant technical reference for the study on short-term
forecast and nowcast of precipitation over South China in the future. |
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| Keywords: | South China initial conditions warm-sector precipitation numerical simulation experiment |
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