生态约束性城市扩展模型构建与应用分析——以南宁市区为例

以生态安全理论与方法为基础,地理信息系统（G IS）和元胞自动机（CA）为技术支持,集成宏观的生态经济学Tietenberg资源分配模型和微观的GEOMOD模型,构建一种生态约束性城市扩展优化模型（Ecological Re-straintUrban Expansion Model,ERUEM）,进行了广西南宁市2005～2020年城市空间扩展情景模拟研究。通过Tietenberg模型完成未来各个时段内城市用地数量的最优分配;从满足局部土地生态适宜性、土地利用继承性和邻域影响的角度,利用GEOMOD模型结合城市用地生态适宜性评价,完成城市用地的空间分配,最终实现城市空间扩展优化模拟。模拟结果表明,该模型在生态安全约束下,南宁城市空间扩展主要占用农村居民地、工矿用地、未利用土地和园地,减少对林地、水田和旱地的占用,增加和保育了城市生态系统服务功能,优化了城市空间的扩展;该模型方法可为南宁市土地利用规划和城市规划管理提供参考依据。

Research on Ecological Restraint of urban Expansion Model Construction and Its Application——A Case Study in Nanning City

Urban expansion is a complex spatio-temporal transformation process.It transfers different kinds of land use types into urban land,the results show that the scale of city expands increasingly.But land resources are limited,urban expansion simulation must be constrained by ecological security.So how to lead to healthy urban development and make good use of land is crucial to maintain human sustainable development.Based on the theories and methods of the complexity of science and ecological security,supported by the technique of CA and GIS,integrated with Tietenberg model,GEOMOD model,ecological applicability evaluation model,an ecological restraint urban expansion model(ERUEM) is constructed,and urban expansion simulation is researched based on the technique.According to the simulation,Nanning city expansion was predicted with the model.The results show that: ERUEM model effectively protects natural resources such as waters,paddy field,dry land and woodland.It also nurtures the urban ecosystem services and promotes urban ecological sustainable development;ERUEM model can be effectively applied to urban planning.The results are sensuous to the planners,and show how to develop the city by planning policy.The characteristics and innovation are that ERUEM model can overcome the limitation of simulating complex systems of urban expansion models constructed by CA model,and consider external factors in the macroscopic and microcosmic scale.