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| A new method for spatio-temporal prediction of rainfall-induced landslide | |
| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展基金(973计划) |
| 摘 要： | 1 Introduction The landslides influences on the human society have become an environment difficult problem not able to be neglected, and according to the priority of harms, harms of landslides are only smaller than those from earthquakes in all sorts of natural hazards[1]. Landslide is part of rock mass, soil mass or their compound mass slides downward along a certain slid- ing surface under the actions of inner and external dy- namics, and it is one severe instability phenomenon of rock and s… |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-07-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-09-27 |
A new method for spatio-temporal prediction of rainfall-induced landslide |
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| DING Jixin,YANG Zhifa,SHANG Yanjun,ZHOU Shenghua,YIN Juntao. A new method for spatio-temporal prediction of rainfall-induced landslide[J]. Science in China(Earth Sciences), 2006, 49(4): 421-430. DOI: 10.1007/s11430-006-0421-6 | |
| Authors: | DING Jixin YANG Zhifa SHANG Yanjun ZHOU Shenghua YIN Juntao |
| Affiliation: | 1. China Non-ferrous Metals Resource Geological Survey, Beijing 100012, China;Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Key Laboratory of Engineering Geomechanics, Beijing 100029, China 2. Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Key Laboratory of Engineering Geomechanics, Beijing 100029, China 3. China Non-ferrous Metals Resource Geological Survey, Beijing 100012, China 4. School of Geoscience & Environmental Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China |
| Abstract: | Geological condition and rainfall are two most principal conditions inducing landslides in the Chongqing region. By analyzing the forming conditions of rainfall-induced landslides, a new method for spatio-temporal prediction of rainfall-induced landslide is brought forward on the basis of grading and overlapping geological condition and rainfall factor in this paper. At first, semi-quantitative assessment and grading for the geological condition of a certain area or slope can be carried out with the multi-factor interactive matrix. Then the severity of rainfall in that area is grading according to the maximum daily rainfall and the total rainfall in a rainfall course. Finally, the “landslide probability judgement factor” can be worked out through grading and overlapping “geological condition influencing factor” and “rainfall influencing factor”, by which the landslide can be graded into 4 grades, they are landslide extremely easily happening, landslide easily happening, landslide difficultly happening and landslide hardly ever happening respectively. More accurate spatio-temporal prediction of rain-fall-induced landslides can come true on the ground of detailed geological survey of some dangerous slopes in an area and more precise weather forecast. Finally, the reliability and feasibility of carrying out the spatio-temporal prediction of rainfall-induced landslides with the method of “two factors” grading and overlapping are validated by the example of Jipazi landslide. |
| Keywords: | rainfall-induced landslide geological condition rainfall two factors grading and overlapping interactive matrix spatio-temporal prediction. |
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