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Estimating the Contributions of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Variations in the Atmospheric Concentration of Greenhouse Gases to Surface Air Temperature Trends from Observations |
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| Authors: | I. I. Mokhov D. A. Smirnov |
| Affiliation: | 1.Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Russian Academy of Sciences,Moscow,Russia;2.Moscow State University,Moscow,Russia;3.Saratov Branch of Kotel’nikov Institute of RadioEngineering and Electronics,Russian Academy of Sciences,Saratov,Russia;4.Institute of Applied Physics,Russian Academy of Sciences,Nizhny Novgorod,Russia |
| Abstract: | We have quantitatively estimated the contributions of anthropogenic forcing characterized by variations in the atmospheric content of greenhouse gases and of natural variability characterized by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation to the trends of global surface air temperature from observations since the middle of the nineteenth century on the basis of three-component autoregressive models. |
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