博尔塔拉河流域过去461 a夏季温度的重建和分析

 根据采自天山北坡西段博尔塔拉河流域树木年轮样本,建立了该流域的树木年轮年表序列。通过相关普查得出,该年表与夏季（7-8月）月平均温度存在明显的负相关关系,且具有明确的树木生理学意义。用然布尔萨依（t+2）,铁里门萨依（t+1）和阿合峡特（t+2）三个差值树轮年表可较好地重建该流域461 a来该时段的月平均温度,并通过交叉检验可知所构建的方程是稳定可靠的。通过分析发现,博尔塔拉河流域461 a来夏季月平均温度经历了27个偏暖阶段,存在11 a、12 a、13 a、22 a、27 a、40 a、72 a、93 a、94 a、95 a、146 a和147 a的周期变化； 461 a来博尔塔拉河流域夏季月平均温度序列在1696年、1838年、1842和1962年发生过气温突变。

Reconstruction and Analysis of Summer Temperature Sequence for Boertala River Basin over Past 461 Years

The tree-ring chronologies were established according to samples from Boertala River basin,west slope of Tianshan Mountains.Single correlation indicated that the correlations were relatively significant between the 24 tree-ring chronologies and the monthly average temperature from July to August,and the maximum correlation coefficient was-0.516.Using the 3 tree-ring residual chronologies in Ranbuersayi(t+2),Tielimensayi(t+1)and Ahexiate(t+2),the monthly average temperature sequence in the recent 461 years was well reconstructed,and the reconstructed equation was stable by crossing-test.We found out that,by analyzing the temperature sequences,the reconstructed temperature sequence in the recent 461 years has 27 warm periods above its mean and 28 cold periods bellow its mean.The monthly average reconstructed temperature sequence from July to August in the recent 461 years in Boertala River basin had the significant changing periods of 11-year,12-year,13-year,22-year,27-year,40-year,72-year,93-year,94-year,95-year,146-year,and 147-year.The abruptly change of temperature occurred in year 1696,1838,1842,and 1962.