区域一体化背景下的环渤海地区制造业产业同构性分析

从区域一体化演进的视角分析产业结构趋同问题更具有现实意义。利用行业空间集中度指数分析1995～2009年环渤海地区制造业整体空间分布和变化趋势,并采用Krugman行业分工指数与专业化指数相结合分析一体化背景下环渤海地区制造业产业结构趋同的演进过程,在此基础上,借助15年的动态数据并根据分型理论中R/S方法预测其未来发展趋势。结果显示:环渤海地区制造业一体化水平仍处于倒"U"型曲线的左边,由单向聚集阶段转变为聚集与扩散并存的新阶段。当区域一体化水平处于初级阶段时更易形成产业集聚现象且产业同构问题严重,如北京与天津在汽车、机械、电子信息等行业的产业同构显著并形成了地区绝对优势,三大"港口一腹地"经济区域在石油加工、海洋化工、装备制造等领域产业同构现象严重。但随着一体化由初级走向中级阶段时,制造业行业发生了明显的产业梯度转移,地区专业化水平显著提高,产业同构度逐步降低。当环渤海地区的一体化水平由中级阶段迈向高级阶段时,环渤海地区制造业产业同构度将持续降低,天津的产业结构将进入一个激烈的调整升级过程,与其余地区间的制造业产业结构趋同度显著下降,而特殊地区间(如辽宁与山东)的制造业产业结构趋同度仍持续上升。

Research on the Isomorphism of Manufacturing Industry Structure in the context of Bohai Rim Regional Integration

This paper tries to analyze industrial isomorphism problem from the perspective of regional integration, using the degree of spatial concentration index to analyze manufacturing industry spatial distribution and changing trend in Bohai Rim region from 1995 to 2009, and to analyze manufacturing in- dustrial structure evolution by the industry division index and specialization index which proposed by Krugman. Based on this we, predict the trend with dy- namic data in 15 years, using the R/S method. The results show that manufac- turing industry integration level in Bohai area still in the left of the in- verted ＂U＂, which means one-way aggregation phase shift for aggregation and diffusion coexist in the new stage. When the regional integration level in the primary stage is easier to form industrial agglomeration and industrial iso- morphism problem is severe, such as in Beijing and Tianjin, industry isomor- phism are notable and form absolute advantage in automobile, machinery and electronic information industry, while the industrial isomorphism is serious in petroleum processing, marine chemical industry, equipment manufacturing and other fields in three ＂haven-hinterland＂ economic area. But with the integra- tion from primary to middle stage, manufacturing industry produced apparent industrial gradient transfer, regional specialization level rises significant- ]y and industrial structure gradually reduce. When the integration level in Bohai rim region change from the intermediate stage to advanced stage, manu- facturing industry industrial structure continue to reduce. Industrial structure in Tianjin will enter a drastic adjustment upgrade process, with the rest of regional manufacturing industry industrial structure hasten decreased significantly. Manufacturing industrial structure convergence degree continues to rise in the special areas such as Liaoning and Shandong.