基于雷达资料的云分析在冰雹云短时预报中的应用

通过ARPS/ADAS云分析系统将雷达反射率因子信息引入到模式的初始场中,并结合中尺度数值模式模拟研究了2008年6月23日发生在北京周边地区的一次冰雹天气过程。结果表明:在初始场中引入雷达反射率因子信息之后,改进了初始场中水凝物信息和温度场,使得初始场更加符合实际大气状况;与未进行云分析试验比较,云分析之后,模式模拟对于雹云产生位置、强度以及移动路径有明显改进,其中3h之内的模拟效果最好;降水降雹提早1h发生,并且降水降雹的峰值也提前出现,明显减少模式spin-up时间。

Application of Cloud Analysis with Radar Data in Hail Cloud Nowcasting

Using the ARPS/ADAS cloud analysis system, the radar reflectivity factor is introduced into the initial field of the mesoscale numerical model. A severe hailstorm occurred in Beijing on 23 June 2008 is simulated. The study indicates that the hydrometeors and temperature field in the initiate field are improved significantly with the introduction of the radar reflectivity, and it makes the initial field closer to the actual atmosphere. Compared with the tests without cloud analysis, the simulations with cloud analysis are better in the formation position, intensity, and motion paths of hail clouds, especially for the simulation results within three hours. With the cloud analysis, precipitation and hail happen an hour earlier, and precipitation and the hail peak also occur earlier; the spin up time was reduced with the introduction of radar reflectivity information.