Back analysis of landslide susceptibility zonation mapping for the 2005 Kashmir earthquake: an assessment of the reliability of susceptibility zoning maps |
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Authors: | Ulrich Kamp Lewis A Owen Benjamin J Growley Ghazanfar A Khattak |
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Institution: | (1) Department of Geography, The University of Montana, Missoula, MT 59812, USA;(2) Department of Geology, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH 45221, USA |
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Abstract: | The October 2005 earthquake triggered several thousand landslides in the Lesser Himalaya of Kashmir in northern Pakistan and
India. Analyses of ASTER satellite imagery from 2001 were compared with a study undertaken in 2005; the results show the extent
and nature of pre- and co-/post-seismic landsliding. Within a designated study area of ~2,250 km2, the number of landslides increased from 369 in 2001 to 2,252 in October 2005. Assuming a balanced baseline landsliding frequency
over the 4 years, most of the new landslides were likely triggered by the 2005 earthquake and its aftershocks. These landslides
mainly happened in specific geologic formations, along faults, rivers and roads, and in shrubland/grassland and agricultural
land. Preliminary results from repeat photographs from 2005 and 2006 after the snowmelt season reveal that much of the ongoing
landsliding occurred along rivers and roads, and the extensive earthquake-induced fissuring. Although the susceptibility zoning
success rate for 2001 was low, many of the co-/post-seismic landsliding in 2005 occurred in areas that had been defined as
being potentially dangerous on the 2001 map. While most of the area in 2001 was (very) highly susceptible to future landsliding,
most of the area in 2005 was only moderate to low susceptible, that is, most of the landsliding in 2005 actually occurred
in the potentially dangerous areas on the 2001 map. This study supports the view that although susceptibility zoning maps
represent a powerful tool in natural hazard management, caution is needed when developing and using such maps. |
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