基于信息论的旅游地生命周期理论探讨——以海南省国内旅游为例

旅游地生命周期的定义和衡量都存在不确定性,从信息角度分析的旅游地生命历程测控性较好,应受到更多的重视。该文分析了旅游地产生过程的信息特征,必须具备充沛的信息量、顺畅的信息通道和及时的信息反馈,才能形成成熟的旅游地和稳定的旅游市场。引入信息论的哈特里公式核算信息量,通过海南省近13年的旅游统计数据,研究游客活动强度影响下的旅游有效信息量,能综合反映其旅游地生命周期所处阶段,并求算该阶段的旅游地有效信息量的回归方程,进一步做出2011年有效信息量的预测,为旅游目的地宏观调控提供依据。

Exploring of Tourism Destination Evolution Cycle Based on Informatics: Taking Hainan Province as an Example

There are many uncertainties in the definition and measure with destination evolution cycle.It must be noted that from the view of information,destination cycle will be monitored and controlled much better.This paper analyzes the information characteristics during the process of tourism′s generation.It must have ample amount of information,seamless flow of information access and timely feedback in order to form a mature and stable tourism market.The Hart formula of informatics is introduced:H=log2N,to account information quantity.The effective tourism information correlating with tourist activity intensity is calculated through the past 13 years′ statistics data in Hainan Province.It reflects the tourism destination cycle stage comprehensively.With the calculation of a regression equation between effective information and tourist activity intensity to this period,this paper predicts the amount of effective information of Hainan in 2011.It provides a basis to macroscopical control in tourism destination.