长江巨洪的强信号探讨

分析了1900年以来长江3次巨洪的3个强信号：(1)太阳黑子活动,(2)厄尔尼诺事件,(3)青藏高原南部大震,它们对大气环流异常的影响分别称为日气作用、海气作用、地气作用,依据长江巨洪和3个强信号的基本事实,讨论了长江发生巨洪的统计规律,指出当3个强信号的出现时间互相重叠时,长江很可能发生巨洪,如果再叠加其它信号,长江发生巨洪的量级更大,这对长江巨洪的超长期预期具有重要的指示作用。

On the strong signal of large floods along the Yangtze River

Three strong signals of three large floods along the Yangtze River since 1900 are analyzed as follows: (1) sunspot activity, (2) EL Nino event, (3) big earthquake of the south of Tibet plateau. The affection of them on the anomaly of atmospheric circulation is respectively named the sun-air interaction, ocean-air interaction, land-air interaction. According to the basic facts between the large flood along the Yangtze River and three strong signals, the statistical law of the large flood along the Yangtze River is discussed. It is pointed out that when the arising time of three strong signals reduplicates, the large flood will probably arise along the Yangtze River. If other signals are reduplicated again, the grade of the large flood arising along the Yangtze River will be greater. This is of important indication function for the over long-term forecast of the large flood along the Yangtze River.