| Confidence Evaluation of Medium-and Long-Term Earthquake Prediction by Use of the Analytical Hierarchy Process |
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| 作者姓名： | Wang Xiaoqing and Gao MengtanCenter for Analysis and Prediction SSB Beijing China Institute of Geophysics SSB Beijing China |
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| 作者单位： | Wang Xiaoqing and Gao MengtanCenter for Analysis and Prediction，SSB，Beijing 100036，China Institute of Geophysics，SSB，Beijing 100081，China |
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| 基金项目： | This project was sponsored by the State Scientific and Technical Commission and State Seismological Bureau (85-907-04-01), China. |
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| 摘 要： | This paper offers an approach to the relative confidence level of medium- and long-term earthquake prediction methods by use of the analytical hierarchy process (AHP). We construct the criterion judgment matrices according to the results of an expert questionnaire known as the Delphi scheme. From the matrices we can obtain a scale for the relative preference or priority weight of each factor. The quantitative weights might be applied to make synthetic prediction of earthquake risk areas in the northern part of the North China seismic region.
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Confidence Evaluation of Medium-and Long-Term Earthquake Prediction by Use of the Analytical Hierarchy Process |
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| Wang Xiaoqing and Gao MengtanCenter for Analysis and Prediction,SSB,Beijing ,China Institute of Geophysics,SSB,Beijing ,China.Confidence Evaluation of Medium-and Long-Term Earthquake Prediction by Use of the Analytical Hierarchy Process[J].Earthquake Research in China,1996(2). |
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| Authors: | Wang Xiaoqing and Gao MengtanCenter for Analysis and Prediction SSB Beijing China Institute of Geophysics SSB Beijing China |
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| Institution: | Wang Xiaoqing and Gao MengtanCenter for Analysis and Prediction,SSB,Beijing 100036,China Institute of Geophysics,SSB,Beijing 100081,China |
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| Abstract: | This paper offers an approach to the relative confidence level of medium- and long-term earthquake prediction methods by use of the analytical hierarchy process (AHP). We construct the criterion judgment matrices according to the results of an expert questionnaire known as the Delphi scheme. From the matrices we can obtain a scale for the relative preference or priority weight of each factor. The quantitative weights might be applied to make synthetic prediction of earthquake risk areas in the northern part of the North China seismic region. |
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| Keywords: | Seismic analysis Confidence level Prediction version |
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