广元市金洞乡Ⅱ号滑坡系统演化的非线性动力学反演分析

本文在研究广元市金洞乡Ⅱ号滑坡位移特征基础，认为该滑坡正处于开放的、复杂的非线性动力学系统中。在滑坡系统诸要素中，宝珠寺加水位的升降已成为系统演化的控制力量。坡体位移是系统演化的主要状态变量，但北部坡体、南部坡体与中部坡体之间的滑动变形具较强的独立性，单一的位移序列不能较好的反映滑坡的演化特征。因此，文中以两列独立的位序列为状态变量，结合控制变量建立了滑坡系统演化的非线性动力学模型，并从现有的变形监测滦资料进行滑坡系统的非线性力学反演和稳定学反演和稳定性评价。

Nonlinear Dynamic Analysis on the Evolvement of the No. 2 Landslide on Jindong Town, Guangyuang City

Based on the study of the landslide displacement,the author considers the no.2 landslide on Jindong town, Guanyuang city,is beconing an exoteric and complicated nonlinerar dynamic system. Among the system factors of the landslide, the elevation and subsidence of the water level of the Baozhusi reservoir has been the controlling factor. Though the displacement of the slip bldy is the main state variable of the system, because of the independence of the displacement among the north, south and middle part of the system, because of the independenceof the displacement among the north, south and middle part of the slip body, the single time series data can't reflect the evolutionary characteristic of the landslide completely and thoroughly. Therefore, with two state variables, whichare two independent displacement series, and one controlling wariable, the nonlinear dynamic model lf the system evolution is set up. According to the monitoring data, the nonlinear dynamic model of the system is analyzed with the method of inversion, and its stability is also evaluated.