| 多层递阶方法及其与谐谱分析结合作梅雨期大-暴雨中期预报试验 |
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| 引用本文： | 席林华.多层递阶方法及其与谐谱分析结合作梅雨期大-暴雨中期预报试验[J].应用气象学报,1987,2(2):220-224. |
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| 作者姓名： | 席林华 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.江苏省苏州市气象局 |
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| 摘 要： | 多层递阶方法是运用现代控制论中系统辨识观点提出的一种新的数值预报方法；谐谱分析便于揭示不同纬圈上不同尺度的波动特征。本文应用其结合方案对梅雨期大-暴雨中期过程进行试验。比较分析表明，以增长记忆的多层递阶预报模型效果最佳。经试报及业务使用该方案效果较好。
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A Method for Medium-range Forecasting of Heavy Rain in Mei-yu Period |
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| Institution: | (Suzhou District Meteorological Observatory, Jiangsu Province) |
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| Abstract: | The method of multiplayer recursion is a new numerical forecast method using the theoretics of system identification in modern cybernetics. The harmonic analysis can reveal the characteristics of wave motion in various scales at different latitudes. In this paper, we have used the combination method to forecast medium-range heavy rain in Mei-yu period. The results show that the multiplayer recursion forecast model with increasing memory in the best one. |
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