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| 引用本文： | 张效亮,谢富仁.����GPS���ݺ�ʵʱ����ģ�����������ϲ��г��ڵ���Σ��[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2009,29(3):38-41. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张效亮 谢富仁 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国地震局地壳应力研究所，北京 100085 |
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| 摘 要： | ???GPS??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????δ??10??30??50??100??????????????????????????δ???????????????????????????????С?????????????????С????Σ?С??????????Σ????????????????????Σ??????????????????С???????????????Σ?С????????????Σ?С????????????????κ????????????Ρ?
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| 关 键 词： | GPS ????????? ??????? ????????? ??????? |
MIDDLE AND LONG TERM SEISMIC RISK EVALUATION OF SOUTHERN SICHUAN YUNNAN REGION BASED ON GPS DATA AND REAL TIME PROBABILISTIC MODEL |
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| Zhang Xiaoliang,Xie Furen.MIDDLE AND LONG TERM SEISMIC RISK EVALUATION OF SOUTHERN SICHUAN YUNNAN REGION BASED ON GPS DATA AND REAL TIME PROBABILISTIC MODEL[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics,2009,29(3):38-41. |
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| Authors: | Zhang Xiaoliang Xie Furen |
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| Institution: | Institute of Crustal Dynamics,CEA，Beijing 100085 |
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| Abstract: | We calculated the recurrence intervals of characteristic earthquakes of major active faults in southern Sichuan Yunnan region with GPS data method and seismic moment method and the characteristic earthquake probabilities derived from real time models in the future 10 a,30 a,50 a and 100 a. The results show that the values of probability for earthquake recurrence in the southern Sichuan Yunnan region are as follows: Xiaoxiangling segment of Anninghe fault，Dongchuan segment of Xiaojiang fault, Mianning Xichang segment of Anninghe fault，Zemuhe fault, Lijiang Ninglang segment of Lijiang Xiaojinhe fault, Huaning and Songming Yiliang segments of Xiaojiang fault and northwestern segment of Red River fault. |
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| Keywords: | GPS earthquake recurrence intervals earthquake probability real time probabilistic model Sichuan Yunnan region |
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