ENSO引起的短期气候异常变化的潜在可预报性的数值研究

本文用大气环流模式研究了ＥＮＳＯ引起的全球短期气候异常变化的潜在可预报性。大气对ＥｌＮｉｎｏ／ＬａＮｉｎａ事件的响应应分为瞬时响应和迟后响应。最后探讨了这种潜在可预报性形成的可能机理。

NUMERICAL STUDY FOR POTENTIAL PREDICTABILITY OF SHORT TERM ANOMALOUS CLIMATE CHANGE CAUSED BY ENSO

In this paper, the nine-level atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM ) has beenused to simulate short term anomalous climate change caused by ENSO The experiental results show that the potential predictability in the tropics is more significant than that in themiddle and high latitudes. In the tropics,instantaneous and lag response to ElNino/LaNinacauses anomalous climate change. In the middle and high latitudes,the anomalous climate ismainly caused by the lag response of atmosphere to SSTA in the tropics. We analyze thecharacteristics of east China,the Far East and American.We also analyze the summer and winter anomaly of mean 500hPa height in the ENSOyear and the next year. The results show that the teleconnection pattern in summer is JP andthe one in winter is PNA. The two teleconnection patterns perhaps are the mechanism of thatthere is more potential predictability in the coasts of Pacific.