ON STRONG SIGNALS OF MONTHLY PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES IN EARLY RAINING SEASON OF GUANGDONG AND CONCEPTUAL MODELS OF PREDICTION

Reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR are used to systematically study preceding signals of monthly precipitation anomalies in the early raining season of Guangdong province,from the viewpoints of 500-hPa geopotential height field,outgoing longwave radiation(OLR) field,sea surface temperature(SST) and fourteen indexes of general circulation depicting atmosphere activity at high,middle and low latitutes,Being multiple tools of information,a number of conceptual models are formulated that are useful for prediction of the magnitude of monthly precipitation (drought,flood and normal conditionss).