一种信息量和专家证据权重法耦合的成矿预测方法

本文选取安徽石台县丁香地区,以铜多金属矿为例,分析该区的地、物、化、遥数据,选择7个预测变量进行成矿定位预测研究。利用客观成矿预测法-信息量法进行计算,得到成矿预测变量所占的信息量,归一化得到变量的客观权重,依据专家知识,获得上述变量的主观权重,随后,采用D-S证据理论将上述主、客观权重进行融合得到综合权重,并采用该综合权重结合专家证据权重法获得单元格的后验概率,制作成矿有利度的分级色阶图。预测结果表明:该法能有效地综合来自主、客观方面的知识,预测结果更加科学、合理。与单纯的信息量法、专家证据权重法相比,取得了更好的成矿预测效果。

A method for metallogenic diagnosis based on coupling of prospecting-information contents and expert weight of evidence model

In the paper,taking the example of copper-polymetallic deposits,mineralization localization forecast was conducted in Dingxiang district of Shitai county in South Anhui province.After analyzing data from geology,geophysics,geochemistry,remote sensing and so on,seven prediction variables were used.To make full use of knowledge from the subjective and objective aspects,a method of metallogenic diagnosis was proposed;that is,forecast technique based on the coupling of prospecting-information contents and expert weight of evidence.Firstly,the objective weights were obtained according to information contents of variables which are computed by objective mineralization forecast method(prospecting-information contents).Secondly,the subjective weights were obtained according to knowledge from experts.Subsequently,synthetical weights were got on the basis of fusion of subjective and objective weights by D-S evidence theory.Finally,color block map of metallogenic favorability was made in the light of posterior probability of cells,which is computed by combining synthetical weights with expert weight of evidence.The forecasting result indicated that the model could effectively synthesize knowledge from the subjective and objective aspects and its result was more scientific and reasonable.Compared with prospecting-information contents and expert weight of evidence,it could obtain better forecasting result.