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| 广西季风暴雨中期预报平台研制思路与应用 | |
| 引用本文： | 李向红,蒋丽娟,薛荣康,黄嘉宏.广西季风暴雨中期预报平台研制思路与应用[J].气象,2006,32(5):110-115. |
| 作者姓名： | 李向红 蒋丽娟 薛荣康 黄嘉宏 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 广西桂林市气象局,541001;广西气象减灾研究所 2. 广西桂林市气象局,541001 3. 广西气象减灾研究所 |
| 摘 要： | 利用1980--2001年NCEP和TBB资料，采用逐例与合成分析相结合的方法，分析了夏季风影响期间广西大范围暴雨发生前各层天气系统和盂加拉湾强对流云团的配置演变，发现暴雨前盂加拉湾强对流发展和经向风加强等特征，并确立了广西大范围暴雨的高低层环流背景场和预报指标。将T213资料与NCEP资料进行线性趋势估计，建立了广西季风暴雨中期预报平台，试用效果较好。 |
| 关 键 词： | 天气系统 环流背景 线性趋势 预报平台 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-09-14 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-09-142006-01-10 |
Application of Medium Forecast System of Summer Monsoon Heavy Rain in Guangxi |
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| Li Xianghong,Jiang Lijuan,Xue Rongkang,Huang Jiahong.Application of Medium Forecast System of Summer Monsoon Heavy Rain in Guangxi[J].Meteorological Monthly,2006,32(5):110-115. | |
| Authors: | Li Xianghong Jiang Lijuan Xue Rongkang Huang Jiahong |
| Institution: | 1. Guilin Meteonology Office, Guangxi Province 541001; 2. Guangxi Meteonology Mitigation Disaster Institute |
| Abstract: | By individual and composite analysis way, the allocation and variation regularity of various level synoptic systems and convective cloud clusters over the Bay of Bengal before Guangxi heavy rain are investigated based on NCEP and TBB data. The characteristics of the developing convective cloud clusters and the increasing meridional wind over the Bay of Bengal are found. A mid-range forecast system of the summer monsoon heavy rain in Guangxi is developed. |
| Keywords: | synoptic system circulation background linear trend forecast system |
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