近20年粤港澳大湾区城市群时空演化格局分析

粤港澳大湾区城市群作为世界四大湾区城市群之一，在国家发展格局中占有重要的地位。基于多源数据，利用重心迁移模型、扩张演化模型及改进的引力模型探究近20年粤港澳大湾区城市群的演化。结果表明：①在城市演化类型上，澳门、肇庆呈单向型演化，佛山、中山、珠海、惠州、香港呈双向型演化，广州、江门、东莞、深圳呈发散型演化；2008～2017年城市群整体的扩张速度与强度低于1998～2008年。②近20年粤港澳大湾区城市群的城市质量、关联度呈不断上升趋势，并表现出一定的区域性和不平衡性，城市质量与经济发展程度、城市空间呈正相关关系，城市质量高的城市与周边城市的关联度高；③粤港澳大湾区城市群的社会经济区位度存在明显“断层”，缺乏合理的梯度等级，并表现出一定的空间分异且部分城市的区位度演化显著。

Temporal-spatial evolution of urban agglomeration in Guangdong-HongKong-Macao Greater Bay Area in recent 20 years

Guangdong-HongKong-Macau Greater Bay Area urban agglomeration plays an important role in the national development pattern. Based on the multi-source data, the evolution is studied by using the center of gravity model and the improved gravitional model. The results show that: (1)In the type of urban evolution, Macao and Zhaoqing is unidirectional evolution, Foshan, Zhongshan, Zhuhai, Huizhou, Hong Kong is two-way evolution, Guangzhou, Jiangmen, Dongguan, Shenzhen have divergent evolution, and urban agglomeration from 2008 to 2017 The overall expansion speed and intensity of the group is lower than that of 1998-2008. (2) In the past 20 years, the urban quality and correlation degree of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area urban agglomeration are on the rise, and show a certain regional and imbalanced , the degree of economic development, the urban space and urban quality have a positive correlation, and the city with high urban quality has a high correlation with the surrounding cities; (3)There are obvious "faults" in the social-economic Location of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area urban agglomeration, lack of reasonable gradient grade, and show certain spatial differentiation and significant evolution of location degree in some cities.