1998 - 2017年天山麦兹巴赫冰川湖面积变化研究

天山麦兹巴赫冰川湖突发洪水是阿克苏河重要的致灾源。利用1998 - 2017年不同时段的Landsat、 环境灾害卫星及高分遥感数据， 通过Munsell HSV变换， 获取了湖面范围。通过对比不同时期的冰湖面积， 对1998 - 2017年麦兹巴赫冰川湖最大面积的变化进行了分析。结果表明： 麦兹巴赫冰川湖的面积从1998年的3.75 km2逐渐变化为2017年的2.87 km2， 影响冰湖储量的下湖面积从3.3 km2减少为1.88 km2， 呈现缩小趋势， 上湖面积则有明显扩张。叠加了时间因子的正积温同冰湖面积有良好的正相关性， 说明气温通过影响冰雪融水以及冰坝稳定性， 从而影响冰湖的面积。研究内容可为区域性冰湖面积变化提供特殊案例， 并为冰湖面积扩张归因分析提供科学参考。

Research on the area change of Lake Merzbacher in the Tianshan Mountains during 1998 - 2017

The glacial outburst flood of Lake Merzbacher is the serious disaster source of the Aksu River. In this study， utilizing the remote sensing data of Landsat， HJ-1A/B and GF-1 from 1998 to 2017， the lake’s area was abstracted with the method of Munsell HSV Transform. By analyzing and comparing the maximum lake area of different years， it was found that the area of Lake Merzbacher has shrank from 3.75 km2 to 2.87 km2 in recent 20 years. Lake Merzbacher contains two small lakes， Upper lake and Lower lake. Lower lake which dominates the storage of the whole lake has shrank from 3.3 km² to 1.88 km² during 1998 - 2017. On the contrary， Upper lake has expanded. As a consequence， the total water capacity has reduced. The relationship between the area of Lake Merzbacher and temperature was examined， and it is found that positive accumulated temperature affected by the lake’s outburst date has strong positive correlation with the area of Lower lake， which means that temperature can make a difference to the lake’s area through impacting meltwater to the lake and the stability of the dam.