宁夏生态移民安置区人地耦合系统脆弱性分析

基于2016年农户访谈和调查数据，依托脆弱度整合评价模型（VSD）从暴露度、敏感性、适应能力3个层次共选取了29个指标，构建了宁夏生态移民安置区人地耦合系统脆弱性评价指标体系，使用熵权法、综合指数法及函数模型评价法评价和分析其脆弱程度、特征和空间分异，并借助障碍度模型对脆弱性障碍因子进行了识别。结果表明：（1）宁夏生态移民脆弱性呈现明显的“级差化”分异特征，平均脆弱性指数为0.151 1，总体处于较强脆弱状态。（2）宁夏生态移民人地耦合系统整体较为脆弱，表现为：中部干旱带>北部引黄灌区>南部山区，在空间上呈现“中部高南北低”的地域分布特征。暴露度表现为：南部山区>中部干旱带>北部引黄灌区；敏感性表现为：中部干旱带>北部引黄灌区>南部山区；适应能力表现为：南部山区>北部引黄灌区>中部干旱带。（3）成年劳动力受教育程度、家庭成年劳动力职业技能水平、是否参与社区建设和社区管理、能否获得贷款机会、对土地质量满意度（温棚）和家庭借贷金额等是影响宁夏生态移民安置区人地耦合系统脆弱性的主导因素。

Vulnerability analysis of man-land coupling system in Ningxia ecological resettlement area

Since 1980s,considering the global climate change and under the pressures of environment and poverty,the Chinese government has conducted environmentally-induced migration projects in areas with fragile environment.After 2000,the government transferred its emphasis from poverty relief to environmental protection and reservation.Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region is an important ecological preservation and migration project implemented in the northwest of China.From 1982 to 2015,Ningxia has moved and resettled about one million (1 000 000) people and is planning to move more than eighty thousand people in the coming 13th Five-Year-Plan period (2016-2020).Ningxia is surrounded from the west,north,and east by the Tengger Desert,Ulan Buh Desert,and Mu Us Sandland,respectively.From south,it is connected to the loess plateau,a very important ecological barrier in the northwest.The south mountainous area and the middle arid area of Ningxia are the main out-migration areas.The fragile ecological conditions,lack of water,and water and soil erosion together induced low capacity,and the population overload has led to severe poverty.The Liupan Mountain area in the south is one of the 16 China’s Key Poverty Reduction Regions.With half of the out-migration population from the Hui ethnic group,the environment-induced migration and resettlement in Ningxia are facing the pressures of ecological preservation,poverty reduction,ethnic development,and social harmony.In December 2015 and May to June 2016,interviews and surveys were conducted about migrants in Ningxia,covering 75 resettlement villages including four resettlement modes,Hui people village,Han people village,and Hui-Han mixed villages.Based on the survey data,the Vulnerability Scoping Diagram (VSD) was used in this paper to build an evaluation index system to assess the combined human-land system in the ecological resettlement area of Ningxia.It included three levels of exposure,sensitivity,and adaptability,and a total of 29 indicators.The entropy method,comprehensive index method,vulnerability function model evaluation method,and obstacle model method were used to analyze the overall situation and spatial characteristics of vulnerability in the ecological migrant human-earth coupling system of Ningxia and to identify the main obstacle factors.Also,the impacts of vulnerability features and spatial heterogeneity were quantified by the function and obstacle models.The results showed that the fragility of ecological migrants in Ningxia spatially presents a geographical distribution of “central area is high,north,south and north area are low”in a spatial pattern .The vulnerability of ecological migrants in the central arid region is generally higher than that in the northern Yellow River Irrigation District and southern mountains.The educational level of the adult labor force and their occupational skill level in the family,participation in the community construction and management,availability of loan opportunities,satisfaction with land quality (warm sheds),and the number of household loans are the dominant obstacles.The fragility of ecological migrants' man land coupling system in Ningxia is the result of the combined effects of the individual's internal and family factors and the external environment.The internal factors affecting the fragility of ecological migrants' man land coupling system in Ningxia are mainly reflected in the livelihood capital such as human capital,financial capital,social capital,and natural capital.The external environmental factors are mainly reflected in four aspects: economic development level,infrastructure,ecological environment,and social relations.The vulnerability research is a new type of research paradigm in the field of global environmental change and sustainable development research.It is also one of the seven major topics of the “Global Human Factors Plan for Global Environmental Change.” Since the phenomenon of ecological migration,the migrants have begun to have different degrees of influence on natural environment and social life.This paper aims to (1) analyze the exposure,sensitivity,and adaptability of ecological migrants in a rapidly changing environment,(2) evaluate the vulnerability of man land coupling systems,and (3) discuss the strategies to reduce or eradicate vulnerability.It attempts to provide some research supports for promoting the sustainable development of ecological migration and alleviating its adverse effects.It also provides a theoretical reference for precise poverty alleviation,social harmony,and stable development in Ningxia and even the western regions.