疏勒河干流径流变化特征研究

选取疏勒河干流昌马堡、潘家庄和双塔堡水库站多年实测月、年天然径流作为数据资料,利用线性倾向、Mann-Kendall等方法,研究干流径流量年、年内、年际、季节变化和突变特征。结果表明:1956—2016年干流年径流呈现昌马堡站[1.075×10⁸ m³·(10 a)^-1]>双塔堡水库站[0.253×10⁸ m³·(10 a)^-1]>潘家庄站[0.126×10⁸ m³·(10 a)^-1]的线性倾向率,且呈现增加变化趋势;径流年内分配极不均匀,径流主要集中于5～9月,占年径流量的50%以上;径流年际变化均低于和高于多年平均值分别在20世纪70～90年代和21世纪00～10年代;径流不同站点和不同年代平均径流距平呈现差异性季节变化特征,夏季径流量增加对各站点年径流量影响最大;径流突变时间和特征因不同站点呈现不同变化特征,3个水文站突变点分别为1998年、2012年和2006年。研究结果...

Variation characteristics of runoff in the mainstreamof Shule River

As an important component and existing form of waterresources,surface runoff is an important link to the water cycle and anessential element of water balance.It is also the most important source ofwater for socio-economic development.Through studying the characteristics ofrunoff variability in the basin,a scientific basis was provided forcomprehensive management of regional water resources,rational development,andprotection of ecological environment.As the third largest inland river basin inthe Hexi Corridor,Gansu Province in northwestern China,the Shule River Basin isan important ecological security barrier for China.Due to the excessivedevelopment and utilization of water resources in river basins,ecological andenvironmental problems such as vegetation degradation and reduction of wetlandsin river basins are becoming more prominent.At the same time,with thecontinuous development of population,economy,and society,the demand for waterresources continuously increases,seriously affecting and restricting thecoordinated and sustainable development of regional eco-environment and socio-economics.Therefore,thepurpose of this study was to analyze the characteristics of runoff fluctuationin the mainstream of the Shule River Basin and to grasp the dynamic changes ofwater resources in the river basin.The measured monthly and yearly runoff dataof Changmabao,Panjiazhuang,and Shuangtaobao hydrological stations in themainstream of the Shule River Basin were selected as the basic data.Thecharacteristics of annual,interannual,and seasonal variations,and runoffmutation in the mainstream of the Shule River Basin were analyzed using lineartendency,cumulative anomaly,moving average,and the Mann-Kendall mutation testin the period 1956-2016.The annual runoff of the mainstream of the Shule Rivershowed an overall increasing trend,and the annual runoff rates were ranked asfollows: Changmabao Station (1.075 × 10⁸ m³·(10 a)^-1)> Shuangtabao Reservoir Station (0.253 × 10⁸ m³·(10 a)^-1)> Panjiazhuang Station (0.126 × 10⁸ m³·(10 a)^-1) from 1956 to 2016.The distribution of annualrunoff was extremely uneven,mainly concentrated from May to September,accountingfor over 50% of the total annual runoff.The interannual change in runoff in the1970s to 1990s was lower than the multi-year average runoff,was higher than themulti-year average runoff of the 21st century.The seasonal variations in runoffshowed different characteristics at each station,and the increase in summerrunoff at each station greatly contributed to the annual runoff.At the sametime,the average anomaly of runoff in different seasons and different agesshowed different characteristics.The average annual runoff mutation showeddifferent mutation characteristics and different mutation times,and themutation points of Changmabao Station,Panjiazhuang Station,and ShuangtaobaoReservoir Station were 1998,2012,and 2006,respectively.The results of the studyshowed certain reference functions to facilitate smooth implementation of keymanagement program in the Dunhuang water resources for reasonable utilizationand ecological protection.The results also provided important practicalreferences for promoting regional integrated water resourcesmanagement,scientific allocation,guiding regional long-term integrated waterresources planning,and socio-economic development.The follow-up study mustfurther discover the characteristics and prediction of regional runoff changesunder changing environment (climate change and human activities).The extent ofimpacts of human activities and climate change on runoff should bequantitatively described to provide references for scientific regulation ofregional water resources.