近58 a新疆巴州极端气温事件变化特征

选取 WMO 推荐的 15 个极端气温指数，对 1959—2016 年新疆巴州地区 7 个气象站点观测的日最高、最低气温数据，采用一元线性回归法等多种统计方法对研究区极端气温事件进行分析。结果表明：近 58 a来新疆巴州地区冷暖指数变化呈非对称性，暖指数呈不同程度的显著上升，冷指数总体呈显著下降趋势，其中 TN90P 年际变化率最大，为 4.67 d·（10 a）^-1。夜指数（TN10P、TN90P）和昼指数（TX10P、TX90P）变化率前者大于后者。冷指数在 20 世纪 80 和 90 年代中后期发生突变，暖指数和GSL、WSDI突变时间一致为 90 年代中后期，冷指数对气候变化较敏感。发生频率：极端高温增加，极端低温降低；强度：增强；持续时间：作物生长期呈显著增加趋势，其中巴音布鲁克增加显著，幅度最大〔4.4 d·（10 a）^-1〕。TNx、TXx和GSL主周期均为 28 a。高载荷指数：TEM-A（0.335），TN10P（-0.313）和TN90P（0.312），是影响该地区整体气温发生变化的主要因素。

Variation characteristics of extreme temperature events in Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture,Xinjiang in recent 58 years

The Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture (BMAP) is an arid and ecologically fragile zone located in the southeastern part of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,China.It is sensitive to temperature change and exhibits specific indicators of such change.Previous studies have found that global warming has intensified the occurrence of extreme weather in the region.Extreme weather events,especially extreme temperatures,have high frequency,high intensity and long duration,and threaten food security,water security and energy security.They thus have critical importance for society.Exploring the characteristics and patterns of regional extreme temperature forms the basis for predicting such events.Existing research on extreme climate change focuses on spatial and temporal laws at different scales,but the selection of index standards is different between studies.It is also crucial to note that spatial and temporal laws are inseparable from the complex dynamics of extreme temperature events.There are few studies on extreme temperature events in BMAP.In order to increase the sustainability of the region,we have analyzed periods of extreme temperature change to provide plans for the mitigation of extreme temperatures in terms of the local scale layout of agriculture in the region.Based on daily maximum and minimum temperature data observed at 7 meteorological stations in the BMAP from 1959 to 2016,combined with current measurements,15 extreme temperature indexes recommended by WMO were selected and calculated using RClimDex(1.0) software.Extreme temperature events in the study area were analyzed using a variety of statistical methods,such as unitary linear regression,anomalies,the Mann-Kendall method,sliding T test,wavelet analysis,principal component analysis,and inverse distance weighted interpolation,among others.The results were tested for their significance.The results show that,during the last 58 years,changes of cold and warm indexes in BMAP are asymmetric: the warm index shows a significant upward trend,while the cold index shows a significant downward trend.The corresponding change rates of night index (TN10P,TN90P) and day index (TX10P,TX90P) are greater in the former than in the latter.The cold index mutated in the mid-late 1980s and 1990s,while the warm index,GSL,and WSDI mutated in the mid-late 1990s.The cold index is more sensitive to climate change.The frequency of occurrence of extreme high temperature increased while the frequency of extreme low temperature decreased.The duration of the growth period of crops showed a significant increasing trend.TNx,TXx, and GSL have a main cycle of 28 years.High load index,TEM-A (0.335),TN10P (-0.313),and TN90P (0.312) are the main factors affecting overall temperature changes in the region.Since China has a vast territory,and diverse geographical and human factors,extreme temperature changes affect the country in complex ways,and different measures are required for different regions.The study of regional extreme temperature events can increase the theoretical understanding of their occurrence,benefit the mitigation of extreme temperatures in certain regions,and improve agricultural production,ecological environment,and the economy.This can provide a scientific basis for regional sustainable development.