北京市人口空间分布的未来情景模拟分析

为了验证YUE-SMPD模型对城市人口研究的实用性,首先模拟分析北京市2000年300m×300m空间分辨率的人口分布,然后将北京市2000年的模拟结果与人口普查数据进行比较,结果表明,YUE-SMPD模型的模拟结果与2000年北京市第五次人口普查数据非常吻合。在此检验结果的基础上,根据2020年北京城市总体规划、北京市绿地系统规划、北京市公路系统规划和北京市铁路系统规划等,模拟分析北京市2020年三种人口分布情景:如果人口允许在国内自由迁移,2020年北京市总人口将达到4662万,旧城人口将达到672万,中心城区将达到3019万;如果2020年北京市总人口控制在1800万之内,并且允许居民在市内自由流动,旧城和中心城区人口将分别为260万和1170万;如果北京城市总体规划和绿地系统规划成功实施,2020年北京市中心城区人口为850万,旧城区人口为110万。

YUE-SMPD Scenarios of Beijing Population Distribution

Population distribution of Beijing in 2000 is first simulated at a spatial resolution of 300m×300m by means of YUE-SMPD。 It is specified in the light of analyzing relationships between population and elevation,net primary productivity,transportation infrastructure and residential distribution.Comparison between the simulation result and the fifth census of Beijing in 2000 demonstrates that YUE-SMPD works well for simulating population distribution of Beijing.Based on the above analysis,three scenarios of Beijing population distribution in 2020 are developed under consideration of Beijing master plan and ecological planning.The results show that total population of Beijing would be 46.6 million in 2020 if people would be allowed to migrate freely in China;the old city would have 6.7 million inhabitants and the central city would have 30.2 million inhabitants.If total population of Beijing would be limited to 18 million in 2020 and inhabitants could migrate freely within Beijing,the old city and the central city would respectively have 2.6 million and 11.7 million inhabitants in 2020.If Beijing master plan and greenbelt planning would be successfully carried out,the total population would be 18 million in Beijing,of which 8.5 million would be distributed in the central city and 1.1 million in the old city.