基于R/S分析法的等维灰数递补动态GM(1,1)模型预测矿井涌水量

针对矿井涌水量时间序列的分形与灰色特征，采用重标极差分析法（R/S分析法）确定涌水量时间序列的Hurst指数和平均循环周期，在一个周期内建立等维灰数递补动态GM（1，1）预测模型。充分利用最新信息，提高模型预测精度。运用基于R/S分析法的GM（1，1）模型对陕北某矿矿井涌水量进行分析预测，结果表明，模型拟合程度好，预测精度高，能够为矿井安全生产提供决策依据。 

Prediction of mine water inflow through equal-dimension gray filling dynamic GM(1,1) model based on R/S analysis

Aiming at the fractal and gray characteristics of time sequence of mine water inflow, R/S analysis was used to determine Hurst index and average cycle period of time sequence of mine water inflow, the equal-dimension gray filling dynamic prediction model GM(1,1) was set up with a cycle. The up-to-date information was fully used to improve the prediction accuracy of the model. GM(1,1) model based on R/S analysis was applied to predict the inflow in a mine in Northern Shaanxi Province. The result showed that the model had good fitting degree and high prediction accuracy, and it could provide decision basis for safe production in mines.