北太平洋海温Victoria模态与ENSO年际关系的非对称特征

利用美国NOAA海表温度资料,重点分析了北太平洋海温异常EOF第二模态Victoria模态(VM)与ENSO年际关系的非对称特征.研究发现,VM和ENSO在年代际尺度上相关性较弱,而在年际尺度上有很好的相关关系,两者同期为负相关,VM超前1 a为正相关.然而,正负VM事件与ENSO冷暖位相在年际尺度上的联系存在着一定的...

Asymmetric characteristics of interannual relationship between Victoria mode of North Pacific SST and ENSO

Based on the sea surface temperature (SST) data from NOAA in USA, the asymmetric characteristics of interannual relationship between ENSO and Victoria mode (VM;EOF2 of North Pacific SST anomalies in winter (DJF)) were emphatically analyzed.Results show that the correlation between VM and ENSO is weak on the decadal scale, but strong on the interannual scale.VM has significant negative correlation with ENSO in the same year, and has strong positive correlation with ENSO in the following year.However, there is a certain asymmetry in the relationship between the positive/negative VM events and ENSO warm/cold phases on the interannual scale.The relationship between the positive VM events and the SST anomalies in the tropical central and eastern Pacific in the same winter is weak, but El Niño events often occur in the following year.In contrast, the negative VM events are usually accompanied by El Niño events in the same years, but there is no significant relationship between the negative VM events and the SST anomalies in the tropical central and eastern Pacific in the following winter and there are few ENSO events.It can be seen that the positive VM event seems to promote the occurrence and development of El Niño in the next year and can be used as one of the early prediction factors of ENSO, while the negative VM event cannot be used as the early prediction factor of ENSO.