气候变化对江苏省采暖和降温耗能的影响

利用江苏省气象观测站1961—2012年逐日平均气温资料,分析了江苏省采暖度日和降温度日的时空变化特征,探讨了气候变化对江苏省采暖耗能和降温耗能方面的影响。结果表明,近52 a全省采暖度日以淮北大部分地区以及盐城北部地区最多,苏南地区最少;空间变化趋势均为明显减少,且以苏南中部和江淮南部大部分地区减少趋势最为明显。而降温度日以苏南地区最多,淮北东北部和盐城北部地区最少;空间变化趋势以苏南和江淮南部地区呈增加趋势,其他地区变化趋势并不显著。近12 a来采暖度日减少了9.8%。降温度日增加了29.9%。2001—2012年采暖期日数为近52 a来最短,降温期日数为近52 a来最长。气温变率与采暖度日变率呈很好的负相关,与降温度日变率呈正相关,二者均通过了信度0.001的显著性检验。

Impact of Climate Change on Heating and Cooling Energy Consumption in Jiangsu Province

With the daily mean temperature data from 1961 to 2012 at 59 meteorological stations in Jiangsu Province, the spatial-temporal variation characteristics about the annual cooling degree-days and the annual heating degree-days are analyzed, and the impact of climate change on heating and cooling energy consumption in Jiangsu province is discussed. The results indicate that there are the most heating degree-days in most of Northern Huaihe area and the north of Yancheng, and the least in south area of Jiangsu. Heating degree-days of the province decreased these 52 years, especially in the middle of south Jiangsu and most of south area between Yangze river and Huai river. While there are the most cooling degree-days in south area of Jiangsu, and the least in the northeast of Northern Huaihe area and the north of Yangcheng. Cooling degree-days increased in south area of Jiangsu and south area between Yangze river and Huai river while the variation trend is not significant in other regions. From 2001 to 2012 the days of heating period are shortest, but the days of cooling period are longest. Variability of temperature was in obvious negative correlation with variability of heating degree-days, and in a good positive correlation with variability of cooling degree-days, which both passed 0.001 confident level.