气候变化对我国江南双季稻生产可能影响的数值模拟研究

在利用田间试验资料对双季稻生长动力（态）模拟模型进行验证的基础上，将基于GCMs的输出和历史气候资料相结合的气候变化情景与双季稻模式相连接，就气候变暖对我国江南双季稻主产区水稻生产的可能影响进行网格化定量模拟和客观评估，并就调整对策（改变播种日期和种植品种）在减缓气候变暖对双季稻生产影响中的作用作了初步的探讨。结果表明，在未来可能的气候变化情景下，若维持目前的品种和生产技术措施，双季稻产量将有不同程度的下降。产量变化的地域分布既有一定的规律性，又体现出气候变化影响的复杂性。适应对策分析表明，改种长生育期的

Numerical Simulation Study on the Potential Impact of Climate Change on Double Cropping of Rice in the South of Yangtze River Valley of China

Based on the validation of dynamic growth simulation model for double-rice through field experimental data, and jointing the climatic change scenarios derived from GCMs outputs and historical climatic data (1960~1990) with double cropping of rice model, objective impact assessment and quantitative simulation experiments on grid points are carried out in the main double-rice areas of the south of Yangtze river valley. Moreover, the effect of a grotechnical adjustment (such as, changes of sowing date and cultivars) on alleviating the impact of climate change are preliminarily estimated and discussed. The results indicate that in the future climatic change scenarios, and under the current planting varieties and agrotechniques, the output of double-harvest rice would be reduced to a different extent. The spatial distributions of yield variation have not only some regularity, but also obvious complexity. Adjustable countermeasure analyses show that the used varieties with long growth duration could increase double-rice yield. Apart from the mentioned above, the sensitivity test with changes of sowing date is also conducted.