古构造应力场数值模拟及危险性预测研究

在精确确定构造序列与构造格架的基础上，探索出一套从建立构造模型、确定边界条件、选取岩体力学参数与危险性判断准则、计算古构造应力值、预测危险区与安全岛的基本思路与方法。采用有限元法，建立了矿区平面应力与三维构造模型，从加载方式和加载大小两方面模拟历史时期作用于成庄煤矿上的古构造应力。根据地表岩体和深部煤层中的节理，计算其内摩擦角和岩体抵抗变形破坏的能力，获得了古构造应力作用下地表表层、3#煤层的临界区、危险区与安全区。结合研究区节理、断层、褶皱、陷落柱等构造形迹特征，对危险性分区进行综合预测。预测结果揭示，山西晋城成庄煤矿区存在先南北向、后东西向的两期大的古构造运动，即先东西向加载60 MPa，再南北向加载110～180 MPa，可能的危险区分东、西两带，该结论对煤层岩体应力集中带和瓦斯突出区的预测具有重要的意义。

Research on numerical simulation of paleo-tectonic stress fields and hazard prediction

Based on the accurate determination of structural sequence and framework, a set of thinking and approaches were explored which includes establishing structure model, determining boundary conditions, selecting mechanical parameters and hazard prediction criterion of rock masses, calculating the value of paleo-tectonic stress, and predicting hazard areas and safety island. The plane stress model and three dimensional model were established by using of finite element method. Paleo-tectonic stress acted on Chengzhuang mine were simulated from its loading way and loading value. By the joint of rock of earth surface and coal bed ,we can calculate its internal frictional angle and ability of resistance to distortion, and obtain the critical region, risk region and safety region of ground surface and coal seam 3#. Combined with the structural features of joints, faults, folds, and subsided columns of studying area, we can integrate forecast the hazard zonation of the mine. The prediction results reveal that there are two large stage paleo-tectonic movement at Chengzhuang Coal Mining Area of Jincheng in Shanxi province; first with the north-south direction and later with west -east direction, first loading 60 MPa toward west-east and later loading 110-180 MPa toward north-south, the possible hazard area separated into eastern zone and western zone. The conclusions have important significance for the prediction of coal rock mass stress concentrated zone and gas outburst area.