不依赖天气预报具有一定预报时效的风暴潮预报

本文试图从大气运动方程出发,提出一种极坐标形式的风暴潮定解问题,并用作者以前导出的一种风场公式,求解风暴潮高。然后用相关统计方法确定风暴潮预报式的系数,以期寻找一种不依赖天气预报又具有一定预报时效的风暴潮预报方法。

FORECAST METHOD OF STORM SURGE WITH CERTAIN TIME EFFECT WITHOUT WEATHER PREDICTION DEPENDENCE

Statistic forecast can not be used for a big storm surge. Numerical, forecast still suffers from difficulties in solution of viscosity coefficient, bottom street shape, interrelation between wind stress and sea surface wind velocity, and a quasisynchronization of variational field of storm surge and air compeling force. A definite equation in the planetpolar coordi-nate is developed based on an air motion equation and used to calculate the surge height using a simple and convenient wind field model of typhoon. Therefore, a coefficient surge forecast formula can be derived using a correlation method, and a forecast method of storm surge with certain time effect can be established without weather forecast dependence.