地基沉降预测模型和方法研究

地基沉降预测是岩土体稳定性研究的一项重要任务。基于邓英尔和Gompertz等已有预测模型的特点,提出一种新的地基沉降预测模型——邓英尔-Gompertz曲线模型,并提出了求解此类模型的新方法——规划求解法,解决多变量非线性方程的极值问题;同时探讨了测量点数目及其所处阶段对预测精度的影响,即:测量点越多预测效果越好。测量点处于发生阶段时预测结果一般偏小;测量点达到发展阶段时预测结果一般偏大;测量点达到成熟阶段时预测结果与预测模型、工程沉降特点有关;测量点达到极限阶段时预测结果符合实际情况。实例分析结果表明:与邓英尔、Gompertz等模型相比,新模型预测的结果更准确。 

Foundation settlement prediction model and method

Foundation settlement prediction is a significant task of rock and soil stability study.Based on the existed models of settlement prediction,a new foundation settlement model and its solution method-constrained optimization are put forward.This method is simple,rapid and accurate.The effect of measured point number and its stage to prediction accuracy is discussed.The more the measured point number is,the better the result predicted is.The result predicted is generally less when the measured point is at initial stage while it is larger at developing stage.The result is related with the characteristic of the model and project.As soon as the point reaches the terminal stage,the result predicted accords with the actual condition.Results show that the prediction result of the new model is more accurate than that of Deng Ying-er model and Gompertz model.