厦门风暴潮淹没风险预警系统研究

为提高厦门防御台风风暴潮灾害风险的能力，辅助政府部门开展海洋防灾减灾工作，文章基于风暴潮数值模型开发厦门风暴潮淹没风险预警系统，并以1521号台风为例模拟其淹没风险。研究结果表明：风暴潮数值模型能较好地刻画影响厦门的台风风暴潮过程，满足风暴潮淹没风险分析需求；厦门风暴潮淹没风险预警系统采用按警戒潮位预警和按高程预警2种方法分析风暴潮淹没风险，可对影响程度不同的岸段采取不同的预警和防御措施；基于数值模型的风暴潮淹没范围与实地调查区域的淹没范围基本一致，可对未开展实地调查区域的淹没范围进行补充；今后须进一步完善厦门风暴潮淹没风险预警系统，同时建立厦门风暴潮风险评价体系。

The Storm Surge Inundation Risk Warning System for Xiamen

In order to improve the capability to defend against typhoon storm surge disaster risk and assist government departments in marine disaster prevention and mitigation in Xiamen City, this paper developed a storm surge inundation risk warning system based on a numerical model of storm surge, and simulated the inundation risk during Typhoon 1521 (Dujuan) as an example. The results showed that the numerical model could well describe the process of typhoon storm surge affecting Xiamen, and meet the needs of storm surge inundation risk analysis. 2 methods were adopted to analyze the storm surge inundation risk in the warning system by warning level and sea wall elevation, which could take different early warning and defense measures for different coastal segments with different influence degrees. The submergence range of storm surge based on the numerical model was basically consistent with that of the field survey area, and the submergence range of the area without field survey could be supplemented. In the future, the storm surge inundation risk warning system in Xiamen should be further improved and a storm surge risk evaluation system should be established.