二元模式下水资源承载力系统动态仿真模型研究

首先探讨了二元模式下水资源承载力的内涵,然后根据水资源承载力的特点探讨了运用系统动力学方法研究水资源承载力的可行性,并在此基础上建立了二元模式下水资源承载力系统动力学动态仿真模型,最后以典型缺水地区陕西关中为例,根据未来水资源的变化趋势,研究了不同方案下关中水资源承载力,得到提高关中水资源承载力的满意方案。

On system dynamic simulation model of water resources bearing capacity in duality mode

Along with the changes of glbal climate and intensification of human interference capacity to nature, water cycle in catchment evolvement from unitary natural pattern to dual dynamic pattern made up of original natural water cycle and artificial water cycle, and intrinsic water resources status change greatly So it is very important to study water resources bearing capacity in dual water cycle pattern According to characteristics of water resources bearing capacity, this paper establishes imitate model with system dynamics theory The model consists of modules about water resources exploitation,industry,agriculture,population and environment, which are integrated with a group of dynamic equations such as level equation,rate equation, assistant equation and so on And then programme in DYNAMO language is worked out After inputting original data and various velocities of variables, one can get water resources bearing capacity at varying development schemes Finally by applying the model to study water resources bearing capacity in Guanzhong region of Shaanxi province where water resource is inadequate lack, water resources bearing capacity indexes at four different schemes are, obtained from that acquires the satisfaction scheme which can promote coordinated development of society,economy and environment In natural and manpower dual water cycle patterns, comparing system dynamics with other methods, the former is easier to get regional water resources bearing capacity of vary schemes, the calculation results are much more represented, and can factually simulate harmoneous development status among society,economy and environment It is thus innovative and maneuverable to study water resources bearing capacity with system dynamics