气候变暖与天津粮食生产的关系

分析了近60年（1932—1989）天津气温与降水的变化，指出天津的增暖与北半球的增暖相当一致，冬季最明显；在80年代全球增暖期，天津夏季降水减少，春季与初夏降水增多；从气温和降水演变的周期性及全球增暖的背景分析，华北未来10年仍将持续温暖而干旱的气候。气候变暖对天津地区小麦和玉米的增产有利，而干旱使水稻的增产受到限制，夏季的增温与干旱对大豆增产不利。

The Relationship Between Climatic Warming and the Production of Grain in Tianjin

The climatic change in Tianjin and its influence on grain production are studied by using the temperature and rainfall data during 1932—1989. The results show that the warming in Tianjin coincides with that in the Northern Hemisphere, and the warming in winter is more obvious. The rainfall in Tianjin was increased in spring and early summer, while decreased in mid summer during the global warming period of 1980s. The warming climate in 1980s was very favourable to the yeild of winter wheat and maize, but unfavourable to the soybean in Tianjin. The drought climate in 1980s was unfavourable to the growth of rice, either in sown area or in yield per unit area.