高空西北气流下铜仁东部特大暴雨的预报分析及思考

利用贵州省预报业务常规、地面自动站加密观测资料、NCEP/FNL1°×1°再分析资料、业务数值预报模式，分析2020年6月29日铜仁市东部高空西北气流影响下的特大暴雨环境场特征、地面中小尺度场特征以及3家数值预报模式检验，初步分析产生此次特大暴雨的可能成因是在副高东南退、东北冷涡槽后高空西北气流维持、低层冷平流下传西输、地面辐合维持增强为涡旋、地面东路弱冷空气侵入、能量锋区斜压性增强；短临监测发现雷达回波有列车效应、低层辐合高层辐散的共轭配置、中层气旋式辐合；初步得出了西北气流影响下弱天气尺度环境场的铜仁市东部暴雨的预报着眼点。

Forecast Analysis and Thinking of Heavy Rain in Eastern Tongren under High-altitude Northwest Aairflow

Based on Guizhou province''s forecasting routine, encrypted observation data from automatic ground stations, NCEP/FNL1°× 1°reanalysis data, and operational numerical forecasting model, the environmental field characteristics, small and medium-scale field characteristics on the ground and three numerical forecasting model tests of the torrential rain on June 29, 2020 in eastern Tongren City were analyzed. It was preliminarily analyzed that the possible causes of the torrential rain were the southeast retreat of the subtropical high, the maintenance of the northwest airflow at the upper level behind the northeast cold vortex trough, and the cold advection at the lower level Short-term and impending monitoring shows that radar echo has train effect, conjugate configuration of low-level convergence and high-level divergence, and middle-level cyclonic convergence; The forecast focus of rainstorm in eastern Tongren City under the influence of northwest airflow is preliminarily obtained.