西北地区某干旱河流设计情景下的年径流量预测分析

人类活动和气候变化对流域水文水资源的影响及由此所带来的社会、 经济和生态效应, 使得新疆精河流域出现了严重的水资源短缺和生态危机. 为此, 实施跨流域调水是解决艾比湖流域生态环境保护的必要措施, 精河上游支流是跨流域引入外水的唯一捷径河流. 根据前期研究计算的年径流量系列, 在经过论证的流域现状水平(C_v=0.12, C_s/C_v=2.00)的基础上, 采用水文频率分析方法, 设计并预测了流域规划的近期和远期目标情景下的年径流量情势. 结果显示: 为了使保证率p=75%, 近期目标要求流域的输水量为8.62×10⁸ m³, 远期目标为14.39×10⁸ m³. 跨流域调水可以满足流域多方面的实际用水需求.

Predictive Analysis of Annual Runoff under Design Scenarios in an Arid River, Northwest China

The impacts of human activity and climate change on watershed hydrology and water resources, and its resulting in social, economic and ecological effects, had caused the serious water resources shortage and ecological crisis in the Jinghe River Basin, Xinjiang. To this end, the implementation of the inter-basin water transfer is necessary measures to protect the eco-environment of the Ebinur Lake Basin, and the upstream tributaries are the only shortcut river of the interbasin water transfer in the Jinghe River. According to the calculated annual runoff series in the previous studies, we designed and predicted annual runoff situation in the short-term and long-term goals scenarios of the watershed planning by means of the hydrological frequency analysis based on the demonstrated watershed present situation (C_v=0.12, C_s/C_v=2.00). Results indicated the water delivery quantity in the basin is 8.62?10⁸ m³ for short-term goal and 14.39?10⁸ m³ for long-term goal in order to make the guarantee rate p=75%, which showed that the interbasin water transfer may meet the actual demand water and solve the water resources shortage, seasonal water scarcity and the conflicts between ecological and economic water requirement.