考虑路基侧向变形的沉降双线性预测模型

考虑路基侧向变形的影响，提出采用双线性模型预测沉降。预测模型包含时序自回归项、线性回归项和双线性项三部分。为了研究模型参数的时变特性，将沉降预测分为模型参数的预测和在此基础上的沉降预测。采用多层递阶方法计算模型的时变参数，进一步分析参数序列的变化趋势，计算后续时段的参数预测值，并以此进行沉降预测。实例分析表明，双线性动态预测模型能很好地反映路基的沉降特性，具有较高的预测精度和实用价值。

Bilinear settlement prediction model in consideration of lateral deformation of subgrade

Considering the influence of lateral deformation of subgrade, bilinear settlement prediction model was advised to adopt. This model includes time series, linear regression and bilinear items. In order to study the time-dependent characteristics of parameters in the model, settlement prediction fell into parameters prediction and settlement prediction based on the former one. Multi-layer recursive method was adopted to calculate time-dependent parameters, whose tendency of movement was further analyzed. Prediction of settlement was obtained after calculating prediction values of parameters. Case study demonstrates that the bilinear dynamic prediction model is worth applying widely for well showing settlement characteristics of subgrade and having a higher precision.