中国大陆及大华北、云南的地震平静指标——不同层次地震平静异常预测效能研究之二

本文针对中国大陆、大华北和云南,利用过去积累的30多年地震资料,经过多种方案试算、评分检验,明确了平静指标和预测规则,找到了合适的研究平静预测的震级下限M0、预测震级M1、平静异常时间T1与预测时间T2等最佳参数组合,可以取得高于置信水平为97.5%的区别随机瞎报的阈值R0的R评分值。

Seismic quiet index to the regions of mainland, North China and Yunnan (part 2)

Basing on the seismic data for more than 30 years respectively from mainland of China,North China and Yunnan province,we calculated the R-values with the several methods and summarized the quiet indexes and predicting rules.And we find the suitable indexes such as the low seismic magnitude M_0,the predicting seismic magnitude M_1 and the best making up for both the quiet abnormal time T_1 and the predicting time T_2.Using these suitable indexes we can get higher R-values than the threshold value R_0-value with the 97.5% confidence.