Analyse régionale des simulations climatiques du modèle canadien de circulation générale de l'atmosphère pour le territoire québécois |
| |
| Authors: | Alain A Viau Alain Royer Colette Ansseau Jean Boivin |
| |
| Institution: | 1. Département des sciences géomatique et Centre de recherche en géomatique (CRG) , Université Laval , Sainte‐Foy, Québec, G1K 7P4;2. Centre d'applications et de recherches en télédétection (CARTEL) , Université de Sherbrooke , Sherbrooke, Québec, J1K 2R1;3. Département de biologie , Université de Sherbrooke , Sherbrooke, Québec, J1K 2R1 |
| |
| Abstract: | Abstract Current understanding of the possible nature of climatic change at the regional scale is limited by the spatial resolution of General Circulation Models (GCM). The use of GCM outputs without correction linked to the spatial variability of the variables can bring significant errors in their utilization at the regional scale. The potential of the Canadian GCM for regional applications in Quebec has been analysed by comparison to the climatic normals of temperature and precipitation, measured over the Quebec climatological network, on an annual and seasonal basis. This analysis has been undertaken with the support of a geographical information system (GIS) (PAMAP). In summary, a difference between the climatic normal and the GCM output has been estimated at 20% for temperature and 30% for precipitation. We present an analysis of a corrected regionalized scenario for the province of Quebec of the possible climatic change simulated by the Canadian GCM under the hypothesis of a doubling of atmospheric CO2. Results show an increase of the annual average temperature of 4° C for summer and 6°C for winter, associated with an average increase of 80 mm (10%) in annual precipitation, reaching 25% in some regions. |
| |
| Keywords: | |
|
|
