A numerical model for one‐dimensional simulation of stratospheric chemistry

Abstract

We describe a one‐dimensional (1‐D) numerical model developed to simulate the chemistry of minor constituents in the stratosphere. The model incorporates most of the chemical species presently found in the upper atmosphere and has been used to investigate the effect of increasing chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) emissions on ozone (O₃).

Our calculations confirm previous results that O₃ depletions in the 20–25 km region, the region of the O₃ maximum, are very sensitive to the relative abundances of Cl_x and NO_y in the lower stratosphere for high Cl_x amounts. The individual abundances of lower stratospheric Cl_x and NO_y amounts are very sensitive to upper tropospheric mixing ratios, which, in turn, are determined largely by surface input fluxes and heterogeneous loss processes. Thus the behaviour of column O₃ depletions at high Cl_x levels is greatly affected, albeit indirectly, by tropospheric processes. For high Cl_x levels the O_x flux from the stratosphere to the troposphere is dramatically reduced, leading to a large reduction in tropospheric O₃. Some of the variation between different published 1‐D model results is most likely due to this critical dependence of O₃ depletion on NO_y‐Cl_x ratios.

Model simulations of time‐dependent CFC effects on ozone indicate that if CFCs were to remain at constant 1980 emission rates while N₂O increased at 0.25% a^?1 and CH₄ increased at 1% a^?1, we could expect a 2.2% decrease in total column O₃ (relative to the 1980 atmosphere) by the year 2000. However, if CFC emission rates were to increase by 3% a^?1 (current estimates are 5–6% a^?1), we would predict a depletion of 2.7% by the year 2000. The calculations for times beyond the year 2000 suggest that the effects on total O₃ will begin to accelerate. If methyl chloroform emissions are added at 7% a^?1 (current estimates are 7–9% a^?1) to the above CFC‐N₂O‐CH₄ scenario we calculate total O₃ depletions by the year 2000 that are 41% larger than those calculated without. This suggests that if the emissions of methyl chloroform continue to increase at their present rate then methyl chloroform could have a significant effect upon total O₃.