基本公共服务对不同规模城市流动人口居留意愿的影响效应

利用2016年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据中的东部沿海6省市数据集,将长期居住意愿、户籍迁入意愿和本地购房打算三部分指标的加和定义为城市居留意愿指标,将城镇基本公共服务分为就业关联和非就业关联两种类型,运用序次Logistic回归模型,系统考察两类城镇基本公共服务的获得特征对流动人口城市居留意愿的影响及其在不同规模城市间的差异特征。研究发现：流动人口城市居留意愿和城镇基本公共服务获得率呈现出随城市规模扩大而上升的梯度变动特征;在流动人口获得的城镇基本公共服务较为有限时,流动人口的城市居留意愿不高。从影响效应看,流动人口在流入城市获得的城镇基本公共服务是影响其城市居留意愿的关键因素,此类影响效应因公共服务内容和城市规模的不同而存在差异。大城市流动人口获得的医疗保险、失业保险和住房保障显著增进了流动人口的城市居留意愿,但上述影响效应在中小城市并不明显;健康档案和健康教育普及程度除了在个别规模城市中没有显著影响效应外,在其余规模城市中都具有显著的正向影响效应;在小城市,仅健康档案和健康教育普及程度对其流动人口城市居留意愿具有显著且正向的影响作用。

The impact of migrants' access to urban public services on their urban settlement intentions: A study from the perspective of different-sized cities

In recent years, urbanization has been attached an increasing importance in China's overall development strategies. Migrants' settlement intention in cities has played an important role in affecting the urbanization trend in China. In such a context, both scholars and policy makers have increasingly attempted to understand the settlement intention of migrants in China. However, few studies so far have examined the role of migrants' access to urban public services in affecting their settlement intention from the perspective of different-sized cities. Based on the data from "the 2016 national dynamic monitoring survey of migrant population" in Shanghai Municipality and Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, and Guangdong provinces, this paper aims to address this issue. We utilize a composite index consisting of three dimensions to measure migrants' settlement intention, namely the long-term residence intention, the hukou transfer intention, and the urban housing purchase intention. We divide urban public services into two types, namely employment-related public services and social (non-employment) public services. The paper then explores the differences in the supply of the two types of urban public services and their impacts on migrants' urban settlement intention of different-sized cities. The results show that the bigger the size of a city is, the greater the likelihood that migrants get access to urban pubic services and the higher their level of urban settlement intention is. Migrants with easier access to the urban public services are more likely to settle down in cities. Through the ordered logistic regression model analysis, we also find that, after controlling for the effects of individual characteristics, family features, and migration characteristics, the two types of urban public services provided by cities for migrants have played a critical role in affecting migrants' urban settlement intention. However, the impacts of access to urban public services on migrants' urban settlement intention are different among different-sized cities. This is reflected in the following facts. First, migrants with easier access to unemployment insurance, medical insurance and housing security are more likely to settle down in cities, but this positive effect is limited to large cities. Second, in all size cities, migrants who are more likely to be covered by resident health records and receive more health education are more likely to settle down in cities. Finally, in small cities, only those covered by resident health records and receiving more health education have great effects on urban settlement intention.