中国作物物候对气候变化的响应与适应研究进展

以气候变暖为主要特征的气候变化对作物物候产生了重要的影响,通常气温升高会导致作物生长速度加快,生育期缩短,从而造成作物产量下降,不利于农业发展。同时,作物物候变化可以直接或间接反映气候变化情况,对于气候变化具有重要的指示意义。作物物候的研究对于农业气象灾害的预防、农业生产管理水平的进步以及农业产量提高都极为关键。随着全球地表气温的持续升高,作物物候相关研究也越来越引起科学家的关注。论文结合作物物候的主要研究方法,综述了中国近几十年来小麦、玉米、水稻以及棉花、大豆等主要农作物的生育期变化特征以及主要的驱动因子,得到以下主要结论：①在研究方法上,统计分析方法应用最为普遍,其他几种方法都需要与统计分析方法相结合使用。另外,作物机理模型模拟方法易于操作、可行性强,在物候研究中应用也比较多。遥感反演方法对作物生育期的特征规律要求较高,一般主要关注作物返青期。②整体上,小麦全生育期主要呈缩短趋势,而玉米和水稻全生育期以延长趋势为主。③作物物候变化的驱动因子主要是气候变化和农业管理措施改变,其中,气候变化是主导驱动因子,对作物物候变化起决定作用,而调整农业管理措施,在一定程度上抵消气候变化对作物生育期的不利影响。作物物候对气候变化的响应和适应研究可以为农业生产适应气候变化提供重要的理论依据和对策。

Research progress on the response and adaptation of crop phenology to climate change in China

Climate change with warming as the main characteristic has important influence on crop phenology. Rising temperature usually leads to faster crop growth and shortened growth period that causes loss of crop yield, which is not conducive to agricultural development. Meanwhile, crop phenological changes can reflect climate change directly or indirectly, which has important significance for detecting climate change. Research on crop phenology is crucial for preventing agricultural meteorological disasters, the progress of agricultural production management, and the safety of agricultural production. With the continuous increase of global surface temperature, research on crop phenology has attracted increasingly more attention of scientists. Based on the key research methods of crop phenology, this article summarizes the studies on the change of crop growth period and the main driving factors of change of major crops, including wheat, corn, rice, cotton, and soybean, in recent decades in China. The following conclusions are drawn: 1) Statistical analysis methods have been most widely used and several other methods were combined with statistical analysis methods in application. Model simulation method has also been widely used in phenological research, and such method is easy to operate. Remote sensing inversion has a high requirement on the characteristics of the growth period, and the focus is generally on green-up period of spring crops. 2) Overall, the whole growth period of wheat is mainly shortened, and the main trend of whole growth period of maize and rice is prolonged. 3) The driving factors of main crop phenological change is climate change and agricultural management. Climate change is the dominant driving factor, which decides crop phenological change, and adjusting agricultural management measures can partly offset the negative impact of climate change on crop growth period. The study of response and adaptation of crop phenology to climate change can provide an important theoretical basis for agricultural production to adapt to climate change.