东北地区县域老年人口高龄化空间分异特征及驱动因素研究

基于2000年和2010年人口普查数据,运用高龄人口比重等指标和空间自相关等方法,分析东北地区县域老年人口高龄化的空间分异特征,并利用地理探测器方法分析其驱动因素。研究表明：① 10 a间高龄化水平升级的态势明显,高龄化区域呈蔓延式扩散。高龄化在省级行政区间、城乡间、民族自治地区与非民族自治地区间、贫困与非贫困地区间存在显著差异。② 10 a间高龄化的变动趋势差异显著,但长期以来形成的高龄化的总体空间格局较为稳定。③ 县际间高龄化呈现较强的正的空间自相关性,空间聚集特征明显。高龄化的空间格局具有以热点区为中心,逐渐向边缘区过渡的“中心-外围”的空间梯度差异特征。④ 高龄化是老年人口年龄结构继承性和迟滞性的体现,自然环境和社会经济是影响高龄化空间分异的基础性因素,可以引导和制约高龄化空间分异的程度和方向。

Spatial Differentiation Characteristics of Advanced Age Population in Northeastern China and Its Driving Factors

Advanced age is not only a reflection of the original intention of aging, but also a new form of aging that reflects the phenomenon of human longevity. It is an inevitable outcome of the aging process to a certain stage. A profound understanding of the scientific connotation of aging and revealing the evolutionary characteristics of the aging of time and space have important theoretical and practical values for us to actively respond to challenges and grasp development opportunities in an aging society. Northeastern China is one of the most prominent areas of population structural problems, and the aging population is becoming more and more obvious, which is representative in the whole country. Therefore, this article uses the data from the 2000 and 2010 census to analyze the temporal and spatial pattern of the elderly population in Northeastern China through the methods of proportion of the advanced age population, concentration, and spatial autocorrelation. We also use geographical detector-based and coefficient of variation methods to examine the variability of the driving factors. Research shows that: 1) In 2000, the advanced age population accounted for 11.32% of the Northeastern China. In 2010, however, the advanced age population accounted for 15.84% of the Northeastern China. The advanced age population proportion upgrade trend obviously, aging area spread type diffusion. There are differences between different levels of the provincial level administrative regions, between urban and rural areas, between ethnic autonomous areas and non-ethnic autonomous regions, between poverty and non-ethnic autonomous areas, and the direction of difference changes. 2) There is a significant difference in the variation trend of the advanced age population in 10 years, but the overall spatial pattern of the advanced age population has been stable for a long time. 3) There is a strong positive spatial autocorrelation and spatial clustering features. The spatial pattern of the advanced age population has the characteristics of the spatial gradient difference between the center and the periphery. 4) The spatial pattern of the advanced age of counties in the Northeastern China is the result of multiple factors driving together. The intrinsic role of population age structure, the basic role of natural geographical environment and the complex role of social and economic environment enhance their driving function through interaction. Population age structure has the characteristics of historical inheritance and hysteresis, natural geographical environment to guide and restrict the advanced age space differentiation pattern, the basis of social and economic development can change the aging degree and direction of spatial differentiation.