中国中部农区农民工多阶流动及影响因素研究——以河南省6个村为例

基于田野调查深度访谈数据,采用统计分析和逐次二元Logistic方法,对农民工空间流动随时间变化的规律进行研究,提出并验证农民工多阶流动假说。研究认为,农民工对务工地的选择是一个趋于优化的动态过程,随着流动次数的增加,务工地逐渐趋于稳定,区位务工时间延长,村落附近的城镇渐成主要务工地选项,流动动因中的主观动因强化,被动动因弱化,逐次流动模型中务工年限、务工地域类型、务工者年龄、家庭人口规模、家庭耕地面积、村地形、村务工人数比例、村区位等主要因子的显著性程度和方向也发生相应变化。经过多次流动,务工地愈加符合务工者预期。

Multi-order Flow and Its Influencing Factors of Migrant Workers in Agricultural Areas of Central China: Case Study of Six Villages in Henan Province

Migration and population flow is one of the largest and most far-reaching geographical processes in China since the reform and opening up, and has always been an important part of the study of population geography and other related disciplines. The study on the time course of migration and population flow helps to promote and deepen the development of the theory of spatial-temporal evolution of population migration. Based on in-depth interview data out of field investigation, the article focus on the rule of spatial variation over time of migrant workers with the statistical analysis and iterative binary logistic method. The main conclusions are as follows: 1) Migrant workers' choice of job location is a dynamic process that tends to be optimized and the multi-ladder flow assumption of migrant workers is validated. With the increase of working age and the number of migrants, the working places has gradually stabilized, the proportion of the increase and decrease in the employment distance has gradually declined, while the distance invariant has risen. The duration of temporary and short-term employment has declined, and the proportion of long-term migrant workers has slightly increased. Urban areas and county seats are the first choices for migrant workers, but in terms of evolutionary trends, the towns in rural areas have shown a rising trend. The urban areas near the villages of migrant workers have increasingly become an option for migrant workers. In the direct cause of the high mobility of migrant workers, the externally forced causes weakened, and the personal subjective motivations strengthened. The result indicates that the labor market has gradually become more standardized and the employment status has been optimized. 2) As the flow decision is optimized, the significance of each major factor in each model also changes accordingly. The number of years of employment and geographical types in work-related factors, the age in individual factors, family size and arable land in households in family factors, village topography, ratio of number for migrant workers, village location in village factors are significant impact among the different models. The changes in the degree of significance and direction of these factors in the successive flow model reflect the adjustment and optimization of the migrant workers’ mobility decision-making. After many moves and experiences, the working sites have become more in line with their own expectations. However, due to the lack of large sample data, this article only carried out six village small sample studies. In the future, we can try to expand the data sample and conduct research. At the same time, it is also a meaningful work to study more than five movements in the migrant workers' working period, which will also help deepen research into this issue. In addition, due to the limitations of the samples used in the study, whether the conclusions are applicable to other regions remains to be further verified.