基于PS-DR-DP理论模型的区域资源环境承载力综合评价

资源环境承载力状态评价研究成果众多,研究视角多侧重于“压力—状态—响应”模型的传统途径。本文构建了区域资源环境承载力综合评价框架体系,通过建立“PS-DR-DP”正六边形相互作用力理论模型,将资源环境承载力分解为“压力—支撑力”“破坏力—恢复力”“退化力—提升力”三对相互作用力,分别对应资源支撑能力、环境容量和风险灾害抵御能力,根据不同作用力大小变化所引起的六边形的形状和面积的变化综合测度区域资源环境承载力状态的变化。基于上述理论模型,采用分类排列多边形图示法,研究了北京市2010-2015年资源环境承载力状态的变化。结果表明,2010-2015年北京市资源环境承载力趋于理想承载状态。2010年正向因子综合承载作用力与负向因子综合承载作用力的比值为1.0143,比值大于1,区域承载状态较好;而2015年该比值为1.1411。与2010年相比,2015年北京市资源环境承载状态相对更佳。2015年相比较于2010年,负向因子作用力均减弱,正向因子综合作用力增强。2015年人口规模为2171万,承载贡献均值为0.7025,进入最佳承载门槛,且仍具有进一步承载的空间。研究结论对北京市2020年人口规模控制在2300万以内提供了理论支撑。

The comprehensive evaluation of regional resources and environmental carrying capacity based on PS-DR-DP theoretical model

There are many achievements on the state evaluation of resources and environmental carrying capacity. Most of the studies use the traditional analysis method together with the "Pressure-State-Response" model. This article first constructs a comprehensive evaluation framework system of regional resources and environmental carrying capacity. Then it builds the "PS-DS-DP" hexagon interactional theory model and divides the carrying capacity into three pairs of interaction forces, namely "Pressure-Support", "Destructiveness-Resilience" and "Degradation-Promotion", which correspond to resources supporting ability, environmental capacity and risk disaster resisting ability, respectively. The negative load of carrying capacity includes pressure, destructiveness and degradation, while support, resilience and promotion represent the positive ones. With the changes of the shape and area of the hexagon caused by the interaction forces, the state of regional resources environmental carrying capacity could be measured. This study figures out that the state value of carrying capacity is equal to the ratio of the positive contribution value to the negative contribution value. The regional load condition shows good if the ratio is over 1, and the bigger the better. Once the ratio is less than 1, it has to be warned. Regional carrying capacity rating standards in this paper are delimited by 4 levels: Ⅰ(≤0.30), Ⅱ(0.30-0.70), Ⅲ(0.70-0.85) and Ⅳ(≥0.85) corresponding to a lower level balance load for a region with an approximate stable state, an unstable state caused by the high speed increasing, an ideal carrying capacity of an approximate stable state, and a full load with the system collapse. A perfect state is not to reach the limit while remaining the system stable. Based on the above theoretical models and the earlier achievements, this research applies the classified-array polygon method to explore the state change of resources environmental carrying capacity of Beijing from 2010 to 2015. According to the general research hypothesis, the increasing population will add to the regional resources pressure. But Beijing's resource pressure has a slight decrease as the city's population grows, which differs from the conclusions that the city was overloaded. The result shows that Beijing is getting close to a perfect state. The state value of carrying capacity was 1.0143 in 2010 and increased to 1.1411 in 2015, suggesting that Beijing's carrying capacity turned better in 2010-2015. Compared to 2010, the negative factor forces became weakened and the positive ones continued to enhance in 2015. With the average rank value achieving 0.7025 in 2015, Beijing reached the optimal load threshold and still had space for further carrying. Finally, these results give a theoretical support for Beijing to control the population within 23 million by 2020.