煤矿突水危险度研究

目前，煤矿突水安全评价体系主要是采用突水系数法、经验类比法、理论计算法。这些方法在评价中存在着诸如不确定因素的影响、有一定的的局限性及参数难以获得等问题，致使突水预报不够准确。基于煤层底板含水层水压、隔水层厚度、隔水层强度和采动破坏等因素的研究，提出了突水危险度的计算公式。从对各突水因素的敏感性分析可以看出，最敏感的是底板岩层阻水带厚度，敏感性程度达36％，其次是沿推进方向工作面老顶初次来压步距，敏感性程度达18％，然后是作用于该区底部的水压、底板采动导水破坏带深度和底板岩体抗拉强度，敏感性程度达10％，据此认为确定的突水危险度公式是合理的。河北、山东和江苏等地的评价实例表明突水危险度法的判定结果与实际情况相符，说明该方法是一种简单、高效、准确的突水预测方法。

Water Burst Risk Research in Coalmines

At present, coalmine water burst safety evaluation system uses mainly water burst coefficient method, empirical analogy method and theoretical arithmetic method. These methods have affected by uncertainties, certain limitations and some parameters are hard to be obtained, thus bring about incorrect water burst prediction. Based on researches of coal floor aquifer water pressure, thickness and strength of confining bed, mining destruction, put forward a water burst risk computational formula. From susceptibility analysis of each water burst factor we can see, the most susceptible is floor water blocking zone thickness, 36% susceptibility; the second is along the advancing direction working face initial weighting of main roof distance between two steps, 18% susceptibility; the third is water pressure act on the area＇s bottom, depth of floor mining destructed water conducting zone and floor rock mass tensile strength, 10% susceptibility. For reasons given above, we considered that the water burst risk computational formula is reasonable. Through practical assessments in Hebei, Shandong and Jiangsu have demonstrated that, the determined results of this method are conform to practical situation, thus make out that the method is a simple, high efficiency and correct water burst prediction method.