中国产业地理集聚与区域出口经济复杂度

中国正处于产业结构升级转型的节点上,探究中国出口经济复杂度的影响因素对制定下一阶段的产业政策有深刻影响。利用中国海关数据库,在三种主流复杂度指标计算基础上,深入分析中国城市产业地理集聚与出口经济复杂度发展演化,并运用计量模型对两者之间的关系进行实证检验。研究得到以下主要结论：① 全国城市产业地理集聚程度基本呈现东部高、中西部点状起伏的空间格局,且城市间产业集聚水平差异逐渐缩小。② 城市出口经济复杂度空间分布格局与产业地理集聚分布具有一致性,高复杂度地区主要为环渤海、长三角、珠三角地区以及中西部中心城市,城市间发展差距随时间缩小。③ 主流经济复杂度测算方法中的经济复杂度指数并不适用于中国城市尺度,而适应性复杂度和新经济复杂度的测算效果更好。④ 模型研究结果显示,产业地理集聚通过知识溢出和生产要素共享产生的积极影响超过了竞争拥挤带来的负面影响,促进了出口经济复杂度提升;且通过促进高复杂度产业进入与低复杂度产业退出有效推动了城市产业升级。

Industrial agglomeration and economic complexity of regional exports in China

China is in the process of upgrading its industrial structure and exploring the factors that influence China's economic complexity helps in formulating industrial policies of the next period. This study employs China Customs database to analyze the evolution of industrial agglomeration of Chinese cities' export economic complexity with the help of three mainstream complexity indicators, and the relationship between industrial agglomeration and economic complexity is tested empirically with econometric model. The results show that industrial geographic agglomeration in China generally presents a spatial pattern of being high in eastern region and scattering in central and western regions, and the regions with high industrial geographic agglomeration are the Bohai Rim, the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, the West Coast of the Taiwan Straits, and the Sichuan-Chongqing Region. Along the passage of time, the geographic agglomeration index of most cities has risen, and the difference between cities has gradually decreased. The spatial distribution pattern of economic complexity of regional exports is consistent with the industrial geographic agglomeration. The eastern region has the highest average economic complexity while the western region has the lowest. High-complexity regions mainly consist of the Bohai Rim, the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta and developed cities in the central and western regions, and the gap between cities has narrowed over time. Comparing the three economic complexity measurement methods, the study finds that the ECI indicator is not applicable to China while the Fitness and ECI+ indicators perform better. The econometric model shows that industrial geographic agglomeration can bring positive effects through knowledge spillovers and sharing of production factors, as well as negative effects through competition crowding. In general, the positive effects of agglomeration are greater than the negative and agglomeration has promoted the economic complexity of China's regional exports. This study further examines the mechanism of increasing economic complexity through industrial agglomeration, and finds that agglomeration can accelerate urban industrial upgrading and increase economic complexity by promoting the entry of high-complexity industries and the exit of low-complexity industries.