俄罗斯典型城市扩张时空格局与驱动机制——基于遥感决策融合与多元离散回归模型

本研究以社会经济发展统计数据和多源遥感影像数据为基础,通过决策融合遥感解译方法、多元离散回归模型、质心迁移、扇形分析法等,重点考察了伊尔库茨克(Irkutsk)、新西伯利亚(Novosibirsk)、叶卡捷琳堡(Yekaterinburg)分别在1990年、2000年、2010年、2018年城市不透水面的扩张特征,探讨了不同城市扩张的自然环境变化与社会经济发展耦合作用与驱动机制。首先不同城市的扩张方向、强度、速度、模式上存在显著时空差异,三个城市分别呈现“快速增长-增长-慢速增长”“增长-增长-慢速增长”“慢速增长-增长-慢速增长”发展趋势,其中叶卡捷琳堡扩张强度最高。而城市新增不透水面的扩张类型以蔓延式和跳跃式扩张为主,填充式扩张所占比重较小。其次典型城市扩张主要发展方向不同,伊尔库茨克城市扩张特征由南北发展向转为放射状发展,新西伯利亚由东西向发展向正西方向发展,叶卡捷琳堡城市扩张特征由放射状发展向西南方向发展,其发展方向与其自然、区位以及社会因素有关,其中自然因素和区位因素是俄罗斯三类典型城市扩张的主导因素。最后文章阐述不同类型的俄罗斯城市其发展方向与城市发展潜力,为其同类型城市发展提供科学管理依据。伊尔库茨克借助丰富旅游资源重视城市内旅游产业发展,新西伯利亚由于历史问题,对城市内外部交通网络布局提出更高标准规划,叶卡捷琳堡作为俄罗斯国内较发达城市,可加强和周边城市联系形成具有联动作用的城市群。对中国东北地区同类型城市发展规划有着一定的启示意义,包括加强发展紧凑城市、注重交通设施建设、加强周边城市联动、发展旅游等。

Spatiotemporal pattern and driving forces of typical Russian cities:Based on remote sensing decision fusion and multiple discrete regression model

This study is conducted based on social economic development statistics and multi-source remote sensing image data (high-resolution GF satellites and medium-resolution Landsat satellites, nighttime light), and through decision fusion remote sensing interpretation methods, multiple discrete regression models, barycenter trajectory, fan-shaped analysis methods of urban expansion patterns. It focused on the impervious surface area expansion process of Irkutsk, Novosibirsk and Yekaterinburg in 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2018 and explored the coupling effect and driving mechanism of natural environmental changes and socio-economic development of different types of urban expansion. Firstly, there are significant spatiotemporal changes in the expansion of direction, intensity, speed, and mode of different cities. Irkutsk, Novosibirsk and Yekaterinburg show the development trends of “fast growth-growth-slow growth”, “growth-growth-slow growth” and “slow growth-growth-slow growth” respectively, among which Yekaterinburg has the highest intensity. The development mode of urban new impervious surface area is mainly sprawl and jump expansion, and infill expansion accounts for a small proportion; secondly, the main development directions of impervious surface area in typical cities are different, the characteristics of urban expansion in Irkutsk are from radial direction to south-north direction, Novosibirsk develops from west-east direction to west direction, and Yekaterinburg’s urban expansion features from radial direction development to the southwest direction. The urban development direction is related to its natural, geographical and social factors, among which natural and geographical conditions are the leading factors for the expansion of impervious surface area in the three types of typical cities in Russia. Finally, the article describes the development direction and potential of different types of Russian cities as well as provides a scientific basis for cities of the same type. Irkutsk could utilize abundant resources to develop tourism industry. On account of historical problems, Novosibirsk put forward a higher standard plan for the layout of the internal and external transportation networks of the city. As a relatively developed city in Russia, Yekaterinburg can strengthen its connection with surrounding cities and form a city cluster with linkage effect. This has certain enlightening significance to the development planning of similar cities in northeast China, which includes strengthening the development of compact cities, focusing on the construction of transportation facilities, strengthening the linkage of surrounding cities, and developing tourism industry.