1974—2013年巴彦淖尔市暖冬特征分析

依据国家标准《暖冬等级》,参照单站、区域暖冬等级标准,确定了单站和区域暖冬等级。在此基础上,分析了1974—2013年巴彦淖尔市范围内9个站暖冬变化特征。结果表明:近40a巴彦淖尔市各地冬季平均气温均呈明显上升趋势。冬季平均气温和暖冬指数相关系数达0.88,并通过0.01的显著性检验,变化率分别为0.46℃/10 a和10%/10a。单站暖冬共发生20a,主要发生在1986年以后,占总次数的91.9%;各站发生频率为30%~40%,以海力素最高,乌拉特中旗最低;单站强暖冬共发生9a,各站发生频率为8%~15%,以杭锦后旗发生频率最高,海力素和乌拉特后旗最低;巴彦淖尔市区域暖冬共发生l3a,占暖冬发生年的65%;区域强暖冬年共发生4a,占区域暖冬年的30.7%。

Characteristic Analysis of Warm Winters in Bayannur City from 1974 to 2013

This article refer to the warm winter grade standard of single station and regional determines, and ascertain the single station and regional winter grade according to the Chinese national standards ＂warm winter＂ grade. On this basis, the warm winter varia-tion characteristics of 9 stations were analyzed in Bayannur city from 1974 to 2013. The results showed that the winter average tem-perature showed a clear upward trend in nearly 40 years in Bayannur city. The correlation coefficient of winter average temperature and warmer winter index was 0.88, and by 0.01 significance test, the change rate was 0.46 ℃ /10 a and 10% /10 a respectively. The warm winter times of single station were 20, mainly occurred after 1986, the ratio was 91.9% in total number. The occurrence frequen-cy was from 30% to 40% in each station, the highest value was in Hailisu, Wulatezhongqi was the lowest. The strong warm winter of single station were 9 years and the occurrence frequency of each station was 8%-15%, the highest was in Hangjin Rear Banner, Hail-isu and Urat Rear Banner was the lowest. The regional warm winter was 13 years, accounting for 65% of the total warm winter years in Bayannur City; regional strong warm winter was 4 years, accounting for 30.7% of the total warm winter years.